{"id":535,"slug":"1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-will-not","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-will-not","q":"1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.737,"ref":0.737},{"name":"No","p":0.263,"ref":0.263}],"chance":0.737,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-w","ref":0.737,"b":1536,"state":[-468.711989,-2051.553904],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791250166,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' \"10 AI Predictions For 2026\".\n\nFor the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.\n\nYou can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].\n\nNote that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.\n\nI might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.\n\nDescription of this prediction from the article:\n\nAI research labs OpenAI and Anthropic are such unique organizations that it can be easy to forget that, ultimately, they are venture-backed businesses. And not just any venture-backed businesses, they are the fastest-growing and most capital-hungry venture-backed businesses in history.\n\nAccording to its own projections, Anthropic will burn through close to $20 billion before it becomes profitable, making it one of the most capital-intensive businesses in history. But that figure is dwarfed by OpenAI, which according to its own projections will need roughly $150 billion before it starts generating cash.\n\nCompanies with such staggering capital needs have no choice but to tap public capital markets in order to raise larger sums of both equity and debt financing.\n\n[image]Luckily for them, OpenAI and Anthropic are also two of the fastest-growing companies in history.\n\nIn 2025, Anthropic will grow from $1 billion to $9 billion in ARR (annual recurring revenue). OpenAI, meanwhile, will go from $6 billion to $20 billion ARR. Growth like this has never before been seen at this scale. Especially given the present AI exuberance, there will voracious demand for these companies in the public \n\nBoth companies have raised a lot of money from a lot of institutional investors over \n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:29 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791250140,"p":[0.737,0.263],"r":[0.737,0.263]},{"at":1791259612,"p":[0.737,0.263],"r":[0.737,0.263]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":73.7,"bestBid":73,"bestAsk":74,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":74,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":17.76},{"price":75,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":78.51},{"price":76,"shares":83,"people":0,"house":83,"total":141.59},{"price":77,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":207.04},{"price":78,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":275.68},{"price":79,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":347.57}],"bids":[{"price":73,"shares":55,"people":0,"house":55,"total":40.15},{"price":72,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":95.59},{"price":71,"shares":76,"people":0,"house":76,"total":149.55},{"price":70,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":200.65},{"price":69,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":251.02},{"price":68,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":299.3}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":26.3,"bestBid":26,"bestAsk":27,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":27,"shares":55,"people":0,"house":55,"total":14.85},{"price":28,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":36.41},{"price":29,"shares":76,"people":0,"house":76,"total":58.45},{"price":30,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":80.35},{"price":31,"shares":73,"people":0,"house":73,"total":102.98},{"price":32,"shares":71,"people":0,"house":71,"total":125.7}],"bids":[{"price":26,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":6.24},{"price":25,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":26.49},{"price":24,"shares":83,"people":0,"house":83,"total":46.41},{"price":23,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":65.96},{"price":22,"shares":88,"people":0,"house":88,"total":85.32},{"price":21,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":104.43}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8137,"ref":0.855},{"name":"No","p":0.1863,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.8137,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":696,"trades":18,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.855,"b":2754,"state":[128.848342,-3930.969143],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6981},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2831},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.012},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6981,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":58,"slug":"will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.045},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.955}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ohio-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260928","ref":0.045,"b":2805,"state":[-8135.683973,-158.679836],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":73,"slug":"will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","q":"Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}