{"id":530,"slug":"acx-2026-will-nvidias-stock-price-close-below-100-on-any-day-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/acx-2026-will-nvidias-stock-price-close-below-100-on-any-day-in-2026","q":"[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["nvidia","ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0502,"ref":0.0502},{"name":"No","p":0.9498,"ref":0.9498}],"chance":0.0502,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-nvidias-stock-price-c","ref":0.0502,"b":1584,"state":[-4739.494543,-81.551545],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791249925,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/40972)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if Nvidia stock's close price is less than $100.00 for any regular trading day during 2026, according to Yahoo Finance.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance is unavailable or found to be inaccurate this question may use alternative credible sources.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:25 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791249900,"p":[0.0502,0.9498],"r":[0.0502,0.9498]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.0502,0.9498],"r":[0.0502,0.9498]},{"at":1791273510,"p":[0.0502,0.9498],"r":[0.0502,0.9498]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":5.02,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":6,"shares":300,"people":0,"house":300,"total":18},{"price":7,"shares":261,"people":0,"house":261,"total":36.27},{"price":8,"shares":228,"people":0,"house":228,"total":54.51},{"price":9,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":72.87},{"price":10,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":91.37},{"price":11,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":109.85}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":6,"people":0,"house":6,"total":0.3},{"price":4,"shares":370,"people":0,"house":370,"total":15.1},{"price":3,"shares":472,"people":0,"house":472,"total":29.26},{"price":2,"shares":659,"people":0,"house":659,"total":42.44},{"price":1,"shares":1114,"people":0,"house":1114,"total":53.58}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":94.98,"bestBid":94,"bestAsk":95,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":95,"shares":6,"people":0,"house":6,"total":5.7},{"price":96,"shares":370,"people":0,"house":370,"total":360.9},{"price":97,"shares":472,"people":0,"house":472,"total":818.74},{"price":98,"shares":659,"people":0,"house":659,"total":1464.56},{"price":99,"shares":1114,"people":0,"house":1114,"total":2567.42}],"bids":[{"price":94,"shares":300,"people":0,"house":300,"total":282},{"price":93,"shares":261,"people":0,"house":261,"total":524.73},{"price":92,"shares":228,"people":0,"house":228,"total":734.49},{"price":91,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":920.13},{"price":90,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":1086.63},{"price":89,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":1236.15}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7977,"ref":0.7985},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1906,"ref":0.1935},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0042,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7977,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":538,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7985,"b":7670,"state":[-1194.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.201,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.799,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.201,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1081,"trades":30,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8109.424072,-203.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0935,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9065,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0935,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1422,"trades":36,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-8212.501882,945.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1552,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8448,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1552,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":297,"trades":13,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-7763.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0449,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9551,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0449,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":148,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-17683.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":233,"slug":"fed-decision-in-december","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-december","q":"Fed Decision in December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.7337},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2216},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0289,"ref":0.029},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0123,"ref":0.0113},{"name":"50+ bps decrease","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7303,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ref":0.7337,"b":5797.5,"state":[-1822.308564,-8763.561489,-20542.401019,-25520.491755,-32014.398889,-32014.398889],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}