{"id":210,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","q":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0476,"ref":0.0476},{"name":"No","p":0.9524,"ref":0.9524}],"chance":0.0476,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","ref":0.0476,"b":1711,"state":[-5208.60746,-83.508497],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41142)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","spacex","elon-musk"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.205,"ref":0.21},{"name":"No","p":0.795,"ref":0.79}],"chance":0.205,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-spacexai-officially-rename-itself-to-spacexsi-byptptpt","ref":0.21,"b":1511,"state":[-2394.550148,-346.643291],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}