{"id":1523,"slug":"alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","q":"Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.165,"ref":0.17},{"name":"No","p":0.835,"ref":0.83}],"chance":0.165,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice","ref":0.17,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2669,"state":[-4809.03037,-481.283566],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791345402,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 11:56 PM ET · World Day 868","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8403,"ref":0.9158},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1597,"ref":0.0842}],"chance":0.8403,"change24":-0.0243,"change7d":null,"vol":5135,"trades":110,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.9158,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5709,"state":[4141.91756,-5336.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1706,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8294,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1706,"change24":-0.0094,"change7d":null,"vol":4954,"trades":110,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.095,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[-2180.546621,4199.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who 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1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0969,"ref":0.0315},{"name":"No","p":0.9031,"ref":0.9685}],"chance":0.0969,"change24":0.0312,"change7d":null,"vol":4571,"trades":159,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0315,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6055,"state":[-10174.346856,3339.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Pen","p":0.5026,"ref":0.451},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1528,"ref":0.1825},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1097,"ref":0.1304},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1033,"ref":0.1288},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0463,"ref":0.0381},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0175,"ref":0.0224},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.0118,"ref":0.0141},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0102,"ref":0.013},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0099},{"name":"Éric 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}