{"id":75,"slug":"another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026","q":"Another Fed rate hike in 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.77,"ref":0.775},{"name":"No","p":0.23,"ref":0.225}],"chance":0.77,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026","ref":0.775,"b":3626,"state":[-947.708635,-5329.045067],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:23 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1796878740,"resolvesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231780,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.77,0.23]},{"at":1791232020,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.77,0.23]},{"at":1791232200,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.775,0.225]},{"at":1791232860,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.785,0.215]},{"at":1791240420,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.775,0.225]},{"at":1791252545,"p":[0.77,0.23],"r":[0.775,0.225]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":77,"bestBid":76,"bestAsk":78,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":78,"shares":208,"people":0,"house":208,"total":162.24},{"price":79,"shares":215,"people":0,"house":215,"total":332.09},{"price":80,"shares":222,"people":0,"house":222,"total":509.69},{"price":81,"shares":231,"people":0,"house":231,"total":696.8},{"price":82,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":894.42},{"price":83,"shares":251,"people":0,"house":251,"total":1102.75}],"bids":[{"price":76,"shares":202,"people":0,"house":202,"total":153.52},{"price":75,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":300.52},{"price":74,"shares":191,"people":0,"house":191,"total":441.86},{"price":73,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":577.64},{"price":72,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":708.68},{"price":71,"shares":178,"people":0,"house":178,"total":835.06}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":23,"bestBid":22,"bestAsk":24,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":24,"shares":202,"people":0,"house":202,"total":48.48},{"price":25,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":97.48},{"price":26,"shares":191,"people":0,"house":191,"total":147.14},{"price":27,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":197.36},{"price":28,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":248.32},{"price":29,"shares":178,"people":0,"house":178,"total":299.94}],"bids":[{"price":22,"shares":208,"people":0,"house":208,"total":45.76},{"price":21,"shares":215,"people":0,"house":215,"total":90.91},{"price":20,"shares":222,"people":0,"house":222,"total":135.31},{"price":19,"shares":231,"people":0,"house":231,"total":179.2},{"price":18,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":222.58},{"price":17,"shares":251,"people":0,"house":251,"total":265.25}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7928,"ref":0.7966},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1953,"ref":0.1954},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0043,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0038,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0038,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7928,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":353,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7966,"b":7670,"state":[-1427.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":233,"slug":"fed-decision-in-december","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-december","q":"Fed Decision in December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.733},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2213},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0289,"ref":0.029},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0123,"ref":0.0123},{"name":"50+ bps decrease","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7303,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ref":0.733,"b":5797.5,"state":[-1822.308564,-8763.561489,-20542.401019,-25520.491755,-32014.398889,-32014.398889],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2017,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.7983,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.2017,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":574,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8594.424072,-715.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.079,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.921,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.079,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1015,"trades":17,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-9217.501882,683.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1228,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8772,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1228,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":135,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-8938.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.042,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.958,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.042,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":103,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-18087.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}