{"id":67,"slug":"billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026","q":"Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.315,"ref":0.295},{"name":"No","p":0.685,"ref":0.705}],"chance":0.315,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026","ref":0.295,"b":4882,"state":[-5639.601649,-1847.038504],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:23 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1793768340,"resolvesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231780,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.315,0.685]},{"at":1791231840,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.32,0.68]},{"at":1791232800,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.305,0.695]},{"at":1791233160,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.305,0.695]},{"at":1791241260,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.285,0.715]},{"at":1791243780,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.28,0.72]},{"at":1791250500,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.295,0.705]},{"at":1791261357,"p":[0.315,0.685],"r":[0.295,0.705]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":31.5,"bestBid":31,"bestAsk":32,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":32,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":36.16},{"price":33,"shares":222,"people":0,"house":222,"total":109.42},{"price":34,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":183.88},{"price":35,"shares":216,"people":0,"house":216,"total":259.48},{"price":36,"shares":214,"people":0,"house":214,"total":336.52},{"price":37,"shares":210,"people":0,"house":210,"total":414.22}],"bids":[{"price":31,"shares":114,"people":0,"house":114,"total":35.34},{"price":30,"shares":230,"people":0,"house":230,"total":104.34},{"price":29,"shares":235,"people":0,"house":235,"total":172.49},{"price":28,"shares":239,"people":0,"house":239,"total":239.41},{"price":27,"shares":245,"people":0,"house":245,"total":305.56},{"price":26,"shares":251,"people":0,"house":251,"total":370.82}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":68.5,"bestBid":68,"bestAsk":69,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":69,"shares":114,"people":0,"house":114,"total":78.66},{"price":70,"shares":230,"people":0,"house":230,"total":239.66},{"price":71,"shares":235,"people":0,"house":235,"total":406.51},{"price":72,"shares":239,"people":0,"house":239,"total":578.59},{"price":73,"shares":245,"people":0,"house":245,"total":757.44},{"price":74,"shares":251,"people":0,"house":251,"total":943.18}],"bids":[{"price":68,"shares":113,"people":0,"house":113,"total":76.84},{"price":67,"shares":222,"people":0,"house":222,"total":225.58},{"price":66,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":370.12},{"price":65,"shares":216,"people":0,"house":216,"total":510.52},{"price":64,"shares":214,"people":0,"house":214,"total":647.48},{"price":63,"shares":210,"people":0,"house":210,"total":779.78}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8666,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1334,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8666,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1566,"trades":46,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[748.91756,-9931.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0622,"ref":0.033},{"name":"No","p":0.9378,"ref":0.967}],"chance":0.0622,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1713,"trades":47,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.033,"b":6055,"state":[-15278.346856,1154.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4697,"ref":0.4188},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1654,"ref":0.1722},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1117,"ref":0.123},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1095,"ref":0.1304},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0498,"ref":0.0497},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0192,"ref":0.0212},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.013,"ref":0.0143},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0112,"ref":0.0123},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0094,"ref":0.0094},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0094},{"name":"Other","p":0.0326,"ref":0.0394}],"chance":0.4697,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":813,"trades":17,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4188,"b":9051.25,"state":[-6026.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.674,"ref":0.6505},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2433,"ref":0.2632},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0687,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0036,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.674,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":694,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6505,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2211.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5056,"ref":0.4888},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3521,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1022,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0171,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0048,"ref":0.0052},{"name":"Other","p":0.0129,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5056,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":596,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4888,"b":8067.5,"state":[-4905.562251,-7823.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.7938,"ref":0.88},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.2062,"ref":0.12}],"chance":0.7938,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1220,"trades":25,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.88,"b":2937,"state":[542.059307,-3417.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}