{"id":264,"slug":"bitcoin-reaches-a-new-record-high-of-69-000-will-it-halve-or-double-in-value","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bitcoin-reaches-a-new-record-high-of-69-000-will-it-halve-or-double-in-value","q":"Bitcoin reaches a new record high of $69,000 - will it halve or double in value first?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Double in value to $138,000","p":0.7496,"ref":0.7496},{"name":"Halve in value to $34,500","p":0.2504,"ref":0.2504}],"chance":0.7496,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/bitcoin-reaches-a-new-record-high-o","ref":0.7496,"b":1297,"state":[-373.884035,-1795.745296],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236485,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Earlier today, Bitcoin reached a record new high of $69,000:\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/05/bitcoin-rises-above-69000-in-new-record-high\n\nWhat is the next move from here? Will it eventually double in value to $138,000 or halve in value to $34,500?\n\nMarket notes:\n\nThe starting point for doubling/halving is exactly $69,000 rather than the slightly higher high that was reached earlier today or the slightly lower figure that it has fallen back to.\n\nI will use Coindesk’s chart here as the source of truth for the market. If Bitcoin goes above $138k or below $34.5k, I will resolve the market. If the graph is glitched or hacked so that it doesn’t show the genuine price of Bitcoin that people are trading at, it won’t count.\n\nIf Coindesk ceases to exist or to track the price of Bitcoin, I will use the most similar website I can find and mention the new source of truth in the comments.\n\nAs long as Bitcoin trades between $34.5k and $138k, this market won’t resolve. If the Bitcoin or the US Dollar are transformed in any way that changes the price calculation (eg, the new US Dollar is worth 1,000 old US Dollars like in countries such as Yugoslavia), I will resolve to the spirit of the market.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:41 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791236460,"p":[0.7496,0.2504],"r":[0.7496,0.2504]},{"at":1791249660,"p":[0.7496,0.2504],"r":[0.7496,0.2504]},{"at":1791258435,"p":[0.7496,0.2504],"r":[0.7496,0.2504]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Double in value to $138,000","o":0,"mid":74.96,"bestBid":74,"bestAsk":75,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":75,"shares":3,"people":0,"house":3,"total":2.25},{"price":76,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":55.45},{"price":77,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":110.89},{"price":78,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":169.39},{"price":79,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":230.22},{"price":80,"shares":79,"people":0,"house":79,"total":293.42}],"bids":[{"price":74,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":48.1},{"price":73,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":97.01},{"price":72,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":143.81},{"price":71,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":189.25},{"price":70,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":232.65},{"price":69,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":274.74}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Halve in value to $34,500","o":1,"mid":25.04,"bestBid":25,"bestAsk":26,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":26,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":16.9},{"price":27,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":34.99},{"price":28,"shares":65,"people":0,"house":65,"total":53.19},{"price":29,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":71.75},{"price":30,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":90.35},{"price":31,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":109.26}],"bids":[{"price":25,"shares":3,"people":0,"house":3,"total":0.75},{"price":24,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":17.55},{"price":23,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":34.11},{"price":22,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":50.61},{"price":21,"shares":77,"people":0,"house":77,"total":66.78},{"price":20,"shares":79,"people":0,"house":79,"total":82.58}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Double in value to $138,000","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Halve in value to $34,500","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":48,"slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-84-000-on-october-5","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-dip-to-84-000-on-october-5","q":"Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 on October 5?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0661,"ref":0.001},{"name":"No","p":0.9339,"ref":0.999}],"chance":0.0661,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2414,"trades":71,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-on-october-5-2026/will-bitcoin-dip-to-84k-on-october-5-2026","ref":0.001,"b":2209,"state":[-3789.473167,2059.576657],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1791259200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 AM ET · World Day 844","closesWorldDay":844,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":89,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-84-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.9183,"ref":0.9405},{"name":"No","p":0.0817,"ref":0.0595}],"chance":0.9183,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1605,"trades":41,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-84k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.9405,"b":1861,"state":[1333.722576,-3168.685516],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":104,"slug":"will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-1m-btc-by-december-31-2026-bv81","q":"Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1341,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.8659,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.1341,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1692,"trades":41,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-announce-holding-800k-btc-by-december-31-2026","ref":0.065,"b":3278,"state":[-5072.980334,1039.689719],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":62,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-88-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-88-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0936,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"No","p":0.9064,"ref":0.9775}],"chance":0.0936,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":937,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-88k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0225,"b":2144,"state":[-4181.81539,685.307288],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":306,"slug":"will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-above-90-000-on-october-6","q":"Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 6?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0468,"ref":0.0055},{"name":"No","p":0.9532,"ref":0.9945}],"chance":0.0468,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":676,"trades":40,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-on-october-6-2026/bitcoin-above-90k-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.0055,"b":2170,"state":[-6124.206103,414.101603],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237805,"closes":1791302400,"closesText":"Oct 6, 12 PM ET · World Day 856","closesWorldDay":856,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":60,"slug":"will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50-000-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["bitcoin","crypto-prices"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0741,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9259,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0741,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":100,"trades":4,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50000-by-december-31-2026-454-325-222-878-949-487-451-853-523-111","ref":0.055,"b":4921,"state":[-12708.977123,-278.3827],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}