{"id":459,"slug":"bulgaria-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bulgaria-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Bulgaria Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Iliana Iotova","p":0.8576,"ref":0.8991},{"name":"Аndrey Gyurov","p":0.1358,"ref":0.0999},{"name":"Other","p":0.0067,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.8576,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":165,"trades":[{"at":1791251666,"buyer":"resres440xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"vona3776","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Аndrey Gyurov","o":1,"shares":1420,"price":11.67,"gold":165.73}],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bulgaria-presidential-election","ref":0.8991,"b":4011,"state":[-450.580215,-7843.647995,-19929.940003],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791243205,"closes":1792987140,"closesText":"Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,324","closesWorldDay":1324,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.","rules":"Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:33 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1792987140,"resolvesText":"Oct 25, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,324","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791243180,"p":[0.8937,0.0993,0.007],"r":[0.8937,0.0993,0.007]},{"at":1791243780,"p":[0.8937,0.0993,0.007],"r":[0.8991,0.0999,0.001]},{"at":1791251640,"p":[0.8576,0.1358,0.0067],"r":[0.8991,0.0999,0.001]},{"at":1791252818,"p":[0.8576,0.1358,0.0067],"r":[0.8991,0.0999,0.001]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Iliana Iotova","o":0,"mid":85.76,"bestBid":85,"bestAsk":86,"spread":1,"last":11.67,"asks":[{"price":86,"shares":80,"people":0,"house":80,"total":68.8},{"price":87,"shares":344,"people":0,"house":344,"total":368.08},{"price":88,"shares":367,"people":0,"house":367,"total":691.04},{"price":89,"shares":394,"people":0,"house":394,"total":1041.7},{"price":90,"shares":427,"people":0,"house":427,"total":1426},{"price":91,"shares":467,"people":0,"house":467,"total":1850.97}],"bids":[{"price":85,"shares":243,"people":0,"house":243,"total":206.55},{"price":84,"shares":307,"people":0,"house":307,"total":464.43},{"price":83,"shares":291,"people":0,"house":291,"total":705.96},{"price":82,"shares":278,"people":0,"house":278,"total":933.92},{"price":81,"shares":266,"people":0,"house":266,"total":1149.38},{"price":80,"shares":255,"people":0,"house":255,"total":1353.38}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Аndrey Gyurov","o":1,"mid":13.58,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"last":11.67,"asks":[{"price":14,"shares":143,"people":0,"house":143,"total":20.02},{"price":15,"shares":324,"people":0,"house":324,"total":68.62},{"price":16,"shares":306,"people":0,"house":306,"total":117.58},{"price":17,"shares":291,"people":0,"house":291,"total":167.05},{"price":18,"shares":278,"people":0,"house":278,"total":217.09},{"price":19,"shares":266,"people":0,"house":266,"total":267.63}],"bids":[{"price":13,"shares":201,"people":0,"house":201,"total":26.13},{"price":12,"shares":366,"people":0,"house":366,"total":70.05},{"price":11,"shares":395,"people":0,"house":395,"total":113.5},{"price":10,"shares":427,"people":0,"house":427,"total":156.2},{"price":9,"shares":467,"people":0,"house":467,"total":198.23},{"price":8,"shares":516,"people":0,"house":516,"total":239.51}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":2,"mid":0.67,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":11.67,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":1638,"people":0,"house":1638,"total":16.38},{"price":2,"shares":2821,"people":0,"house":2821,"total":72.8},{"price":3,"shares":1667,"people":0,"house":1667,"total":122.81},{"price":4,"shares":1196,"people":0,"house":1196,"total":170.65},{"price":5,"shares":937,"people":0,"house":937,"total":217.5},{"price":6,"shares":773,"people":0,"house":773,"total":263.88}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Iliana Iotova","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Аndrey Gyurov","o":1,"top":[{"key":"resres440xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"vona3776","shares":1420,"cost":175.98,"res":true}],"count":1},{"outcome":"Other","o":2,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8567,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1433,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8567,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1128,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[245.91756,-9964.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4647,"ref":0.4405},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.167,"ref":0.1875},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1128,"ref":0.1267},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1106,"ref":0.1247},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0502,"ref":0.0512},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0194,"ref":0.0218},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.0131,"ref":0.0147},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.0113,"ref":0.0126},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0095,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0086,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Other","p":0.0329,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4647,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":727,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4405,"b":9051.25,"state":[-6209.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0577,"ref":0.0325},{"name":"No","p":0.9423,"ref":0.9675}],"chance":0.0577,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1225,"trades":28,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0325,"b":6055,"state":[-16138.346856,778.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6719,"ref":0.6505},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2448,"ref":0.2632},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0692,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6719,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":647,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6505,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2281.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5012,"ref":0.4889},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.353,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1048,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0176,"ref":0.0188},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0054,"ref":0.0059},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0049,"ref":0.0054},{"name":"Other","p":0.0132,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5012,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":394,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4889,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5177.562251,-8006.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8034,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1966,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8034,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":898,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[255.059307,-3879.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}