{"id":836,"slug":"by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a-novel-optimization-algorithm","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a-novel-optimization-algorithm","q":"By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.4237,"ref":0.4237},{"name":"No","p":0.5763,"ref":0.5763}],"chance":0.4237,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a","ref":0.4237,"b":1033,"state":[-887.02616,-569.344649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791273221,"closes":1798790400,"closesText":"Jan 1, 3 AM ET · World Day 2,936","closesWorldDay":2936,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).\n\nTo judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.\n\nIf Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 3:53 AM ET · World Day 848","resolves":1799049600,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 3 AM ET · World Day 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$4.0T by December 31?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.074,"ref":0.067},{"name":"No","p":0.926,"ref":0.933}],"chance":0.074,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","ref":0.067,"b":3895,"state":[-10141.373274,-299.451668],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1799125140,"closesText":"Jan 4, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":669,"slug":"will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}