{"id":149,"slug":"by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-break-in-trend-line-on-us-gdp-gdp-per-capita","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-break-in-trend-line-on-us-gdp-gdp-per-capita","q":"By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.31,"ref":0.31},{"name":"No","p":0.69,"ref":0.69}],"chance":0.31,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/by-2028-will-there-be-a-visible-bre","ref":0.31,"b":2505,"state":[-2933.813369,-929.514522],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232645,"closes":1830412740,"closesText":"Jan 2, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 11,720","closesWorldDay":11720,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Related to ACX five year predictions. I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time. By \"visible break\", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon. \n\nUpdate 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:\n\nA direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:37 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1830671940,"resolvesText":"Jan 5, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}