{"id":155,"slug":"by-2029-will-an-ai-be-able-to-generate-video-games-comparable-to-2023-aa-mid","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/by-2029-will-an-ai-be-able-to-generate-video-games-comparable-to-2023-aa-mid","q":"By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.832,"ref":0.837},{"name":"No","p":0.168,"ref":0.163}],"chance":0.832,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DanW/by-2029-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","ref":0.837,"b":2024,"state":[-372.17356,-3610.820858],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1862031540,"closesText":"Jan 2, 1:59 AM ET · World Day 20,503","closesWorldDay":20503,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate video games from any genre that exists today in 2023. The generated games should be comparable in quality to games created by 'AA' mid market studios in (or before) the year 2023.\n\nSome examples:\n\n\"make me a multiplayer arena shooter in set in zero g\"\n\n\"make me a fantasy rpg with branching choices using a combat system inspired by D&D\"\n\n\"make me a voxel based open world exploration game based around crafting\"\n\n\"make me a mindbending puzzle game that uses perspective and time as central mechanics\" \n\nThe AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.\n\nEDIT #1: I will not bet on this market.\n\nUpdate 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator confirmed that for the market to resolve to YES, the AI system must be able to generate games from any genre. This explicitly includes more challenging genres, such as puzzle games.\n\nUpdate 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that coherent world sims via diffusion models would count as qualifying AI systems for this market's resolution criteria.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:41 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1862290740,"resolvesText":"Jan 5, 1:59 AM ET · World Day 20,575","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232860,"p":[0.832,0.168],"r":[0.832,0.168]},{"at":1791235320,"p":[0.832,0.168],"r":[0.8623,0.1377]},{"at":1791238620,"p":[0.832,0.168],"r":[0.837,0.163]},{"at":1791249357,"p":[0.832,0.168],"r":[0.837,0.163]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":83.2,"bestBid":83,"bestAsk":84,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":84,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":99.12},{"price":85,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":230.02},{"price":86,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":370.2},{"price":87,"shares":174,"people":0,"house":174,"total":521.58},{"price":88,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":684.38},{"price":89,"shares":199,"people":0,"house":199,"total":861.49}],"bids":[{"price":83,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":24.07},{"price":82,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":139.69},{"price":81,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":248.23},{"price":80,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":351.43},{"price":79,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":449.39},{"price":78,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":542.99}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":16.8,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":17,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":17,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":4.93},{"price":18,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":30.31},{"price":19,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":55.77},{"price":20,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":81.57},{"price":21,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":107.61},{"price":22,"shares":120,"people":0,"house":120,"total":134.01}],"bids":[{"price":16,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":18.88},{"price":15,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":41.98},{"price":14,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":64.8},{"price":13,"shares":174,"people":0,"house":174,"total":87.42},{"price":12,"shares":185,"people":0,"house":185,"total":109.62},{"price":11,"shares":199,"people":0,"house":199,"total":131.51}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1919,"ref":0.145},{"name":"No","p":0.8081,"ref":0.855}],"chance":0.1919,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":694,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.145,"b":3495,"state":[-5075.92027,-50.505066],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6579},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.3218},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.0134},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0059},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6579,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":73,"slug":"will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropic-announce-bankruptcy-by-december-31-2027","q":"Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.095,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.905,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.095,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-announces-bankruptcy-by","ref":0.095,"b":4196,"state":[-9876.873713,-418.846127],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1830315540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":58,"slug":"will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}