{"id":197,"slug":"diesel-export-ban-before-midterms","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/diesel-export-ban-before-midterms","q":"Diesel export ban before midterms?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.064,"ref":0.0634},{"name":"No","p":0.936,"ref":0.9366}],"chance":0.064,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Balasar/diesel-export-ban-before-midterms","ref":0.0634,"b":1258,"state":[-3457.810748,-83.222368],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234085,"closes":1793663940,"closesText":"Nov 2, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 1,512","closesWorldDay":1512,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if the United States federal government enacts a ban or embargo on the export of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the U.S. at any point before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nTo qualify:\n\nThe action must be federal, implemented via an executive order, a federal agency action (e.g. from the Department of Energy or the Bureau of Industry and Security), or federal legislation signed into law. State-level proposals, actions, or non-binding resolutions do not qualify.\n\nThe policy must legally prohibit or comprehensively restrict the export of U.S. diesel fuel to foreign markets (temporary bans or short-term emergency embargoes qualify, but narrow, non-binding guidelines or routine administrative export licensing adjustments do not).\n\nThe ban must be officially announced and scheduled to take effect or be in effect prior to November 3, 2026.\n\nCredible financial and political news sources, such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or The Wall Street Journal, will be used to verify the outcomes.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:01 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1793923140,"resolvesText":"Nov 5, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 1,584","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791234060,"p":[0.064,0.936],"r":[0.064,0.936]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.064,0.936],"r":[0.0634,0.9366]},{"at":1791246141,"p":[0.064,0.936],"r":[0.0634,0.9366]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":6.4,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":7,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":121,"people":0,"house":121,"total":8.47},{"price":8,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":22.95},{"price":9,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":37.53},{"price":10,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":52.13},{"price":11,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":66.87},{"price":12,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":81.75}],"bids":[{"price":6,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":5.22},{"price":5,"shares":243,"people":0,"house":243,"total":17.37},{"price":4,"shares":293,"people":0,"house":293,"total":29.09},{"price":3,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":40.34},{"price":2,"shares":523,"people":0,"house":523,"total":50.8},{"price":1,"shares":885,"people":0,"house":885,"total":59.65}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":93.6,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":94,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":81.78},{"price":95,"shares":243,"people":0,"house":243,"total":312.63},{"price":96,"shares":293,"people":0,"house":293,"total":593.91},{"price":97,"shares":375,"people":0,"house":375,"total":957.66},{"price":98,"shares":523,"people":0,"house":523,"total":1470.2},{"price":99,"shares":885,"people":0,"house":885,"total":2346.35}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":121,"people":0,"house":121,"total":112.53},{"price":92,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":279.05},{"price":91,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":426.47},{"price":90,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":557.87},{"price":89,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":677.13},{"price":88,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":786.25}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8844,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1156,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8844,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":727,"trades":19,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[25.91756,-11591.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6712,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2454,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6712,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":632,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2304.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8133,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1867,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8133,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":250,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[-355.940693,-4678.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":279,"slug":"south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"South Carolina Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Darline Graham Nordone (R)","p":0.8477,"ref":0.855},{"name":"Annie Andrews (D)","p":0.1523,"ref":0.145}],"chance":0.8477,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":31,"trades":1,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner","ref":0.855,"b":3725,"state":[-583.535442,-6978.055224],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236845,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":153,"slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","q":"Presidential Election Winner 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"JD Vance","p":0.2227,"ref":0.2658},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1541,"ref":0.1983},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1141,"ref":0.1359},{"name":"Marco Rubio","p":0.0978,"ref":0.1165},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.087,"ref":0.1036},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0497,"ref":0.0593},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.033,"ref":0.0393},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0297,"ref":0.0353},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"Other","p":0.1741,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.2227,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","ref":0.2658,"b":10000,"state":[-15019.175687,-18704.517378,-21710.827846,-23244.438868,-24415.365531,-30011.52341,-34120.670539,-35156.077328,-39675.928566,-39675.928566,-17483.893725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":112,"slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","q":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1952,"ref":0.2341},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.1697,"ref":0.2035},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1615,"ref":0.1937},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0718,"ref":0.0861},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.0647,"ref":0.0776},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0549,"ref":0.0658},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0332,"ref":0.0398},{"name":"James Talarico","p":0.0321,"ref":0.0384},{"name":"Mark Kelly","p":0.0277,"ref":0.0332},{"name":"Wes Moore","p":0.0223,"ref":0.0267},{"name":"Other","p":0.1669,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.1952,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","ref":0.2341,"b":10000,"state":[-16336.548361,-17739.740368,-18232.450858,-26341.75302,-27378.537315,-29018.567078,-34061.033604,-34394.397807,-35851.515919,-38034.051579,-17901.29477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}