{"id":485,"slug":"donut-battery-is-essentially-lithium-free","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/donut-battery-is-essentially-lithium-free","q":"Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1978,"ref":0.1978},{"name":"No","p":0.8022,"ref":0.8022}],"chance":0.1978,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu","ref":0.1978,"b":2531,"state":[-4101.01936,-557.93987],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791244645,"closes":1798775400,"closesText":"Dec 31, 10:50 PM ET · World Day 2,932","closesWorldDay":2932,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"(This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner)\n\nResolution criteria\n\nThe market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight. The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight. Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs). Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources.\n\nBackground\n\nDonut Lab announced at CES 2026 that it had developed an all-solid-state battery with claimed energy density of 400 Wh/kg, five-minute charging capability, 100,000-cycle lifespan, and materials made from \"100% green and abundant materials with global availability.\" After initial test results were published, several battery experts publicly challenged the claim that the cell operates without lithium, with specialists pointing out that charging curves and additional data indicated it could be a lithium-ion cell. The company could be using an anode-free sodium-metal battery instead of lithium metal anodes.\n\nRelated markets:\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/AristotelisKostelenos/will-i-deem-donut-labs-solid-state\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-powered-car-delivered\n\nUpdate 2026-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Donut Battery turns out to be a scam, the market will still attempt to resolve based on whether lithium is present in the actual battery (i.e., independent testing of whatever physical product exists).\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:57 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1799034600,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 10:50 PM ET · World Day 3,004","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791244620,"p":[0.1978,0.8022],"r":[0.1978,0.8022]},{"at":1791255731,"p":[0.1978,0.8022],"r":[0.1978,0.8022]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":19.78,"bestBid":19,"bestAsk":20,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":20,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":6.8},{"price":21,"shares":156,"people":0,"house":156,"total":39.56},{"price":22,"shares":150,"people":0,"house":150,"total":72.56},{"price":23,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":105.91},{"price":24,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":139.75},{"price":25,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":173.75}],"bids":[{"price":19,"shares":127,"people":0,"house":127,"total":24.13},{"price":18,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":54.37},{"price":17,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":84.12},{"price":16,"shares":184,"people":0,"house":184,"total":113.56},{"price":15,"shares":193,"people":0,"house":193,"total":142.51},{"price":14,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":171.07}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":80.22,"bestBid":80,"bestAsk":81,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":81,"shares":127,"people":0,"house":127,"total":102.87},{"price":82,"shares":168,"people":0,"house":168,"total":240.63},{"price":83,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":385.88},{"price":84,"shares":184,"people":0,"house":184,"total":540.44},{"price":85,"shares":193,"people":0,"house":193,"total":704.49},{"price":86,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":879.93}],"bids":[{"price":80,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":27.2},{"price":79,"shares":156,"people":0,"house":156,"total":150.44},{"price":78,"shares":150,"people":0,"house":150,"total":267.44},{"price":77,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":379.09},{"price":76,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":486.25},{"price":75,"shares":136,"people":0,"house":136,"total":588.25}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.075},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.925}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.075,"b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":522,"slug":"more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","q":"More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.1012},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.8988}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.1012,"b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":564,"slug":"will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","q":"Will USGS record a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake from Oct 7 to Oct 13?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5034,"ref":0.5034},{"name":"No","p":0.4966,"ref":0.4966}],"chance":0.5034,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-14&minmagnitude=6.5","ref":0.5034,"b":1500,"state":[-1029.511504,-1050],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":565,"slug":"will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","q":"Will USGS record 4 or more magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes from Oct 7 to Oct 9?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5468,"ref":0.5468},{"name":"No","p":0.4532,"ref":0.4532}],"chance":0.5468,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-10&minmagnitude=5.5","ref":0.5468,"b":1500,"state":[-905.636541,-1186.977866],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":437,"slug":"how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","q":"How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video 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years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025}],"chance":0.5846,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sc/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an","ref":0.5863,"b":939,"state":[-504.129168,-999.011457,-3745.790825,-4159.019899,-4291.657876,-4576.814074,-4646.33886,-4683.785442,-5187.454372,-5187.454372],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791241765,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":210,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","q":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0476,"ref":0.0476},{"name":"No","p":0.9524,"ref":0.9524}],"chance":0.0476,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","ref":0.0476,"b":1711,"state":[-5208.60746,-83.508497],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}