{"id":31,"slug":"elon-musk-creates-political-party-before-trump-presidency-ends","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/elon-musk-creates-political-party-before-trump-presidency-ends","q":"Elon Musk creates political party before Trump presidency ends?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","elon-musk","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.224,"ref":0.1624},{"name":"No","p":0.776,"ref":0.8376}],"chance":0.224,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/elon-musk-creates-political-party-b","ref":0.1624,"b":1807,"state":[-2703.746342,-458.180243],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1863691140,"closesText":"Jan 21, 6:59 AM ET · World Day 20,964","closesWorldDay":20964,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).\n\nThe party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.\n\nA public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.\n\nSpeculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.\n\nUpdate 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:\n\nAny candidates ultimately get on the ballot.\n\nThe party succeeds in gaining ballot access.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1863950340,"resolvesText":"Jan 24, 6:59 AM ET · World Day 21,036","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231660,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.224,0.776]},{"at":1791232260,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.2076,0.7924]},{"at":1791234840,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1551,0.8449]},{"at":1791235860,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1422,0.8578]},{"at":1791239100,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1872,0.8128]},{"at":1791243420,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1805,0.8195]},{"at":1791251700,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1678,0.8322]},{"at":1791259020,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1624,0.8376]},{"at":1791261359,"p":[0.224,0.776],"r":[0.1624,0.8376]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":22.4,"bestBid":22,"bestAsk":23,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":23,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":14.26},{"price":24,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":38.5},{"price":25,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":62.75},{"price":26,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":87.71},{"price":27,"shares":92,"people":0,"house":92,"total":112.55},{"price":28,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":138.03}],"bids":[{"price":22,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":9.02},{"price":21,"shares":108,"people":0,"house":108,"total":31.7},{"price":20,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":53.7},{"price":19,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":75.74},{"price":18,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":97.16},{"price":17,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":118.58}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":77.6,"bestBid":77,"bestAsk":78,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":78,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":31.98},{"price":79,"shares":108,"people":0,"house":108,"total":117.3},{"price":80,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":205.3},{"price":81,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":299.26},{"price":82,"shares":119,"people":0,"house":119,"total":396.84},{"price":83,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":501.42}],"bids":[{"price":77,"shares":62,"people":0,"house":62,"total":47.74},{"price":76,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":124.5},{"price":75,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":197.25},{"price":74,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":268.29},{"price":73,"shares":92,"people":0,"house":92,"total":335.45},{"price":72,"shares":91,"people":0,"house":91,"total":400.97}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8659,"ref":0.875},{"name":"No","p":0.1341,"ref":0.125}],"chance":0.8659,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1768,"trades":29,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.875,"b":2983,"state":[1338.675856,-4224.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.216,"ref":0.235},{"name":"No","p":0.784,"ref":0.765}],"chance":0.216,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":661,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.235,"b":4819,"state":[-6723.368032,-511.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1787,"ref":0.135},{"name":"No","p":0.8213,"ref":0.865}],"chance":0.1787,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":595,"trades":19,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.135,"b":4035,"state":[-6352.546621,-198.799169],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0579,"ref":0.0255},{"name":"No","p":0.9421,"ref":0.9745}],"chance":0.0579,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":681,"trades":22,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.0255,"b":6328,"state":[-17462.91816,192.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0949,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.9051,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.0949,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":436,"trades":19,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"b":6064,"state":[-13939.825141,-262.475351],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0802,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9198,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0802,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":165,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"b":6143,"state":[-15336.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}