{"id":345,"slug":"gianni-infantino-announces-he-is-out-as-fifa-president-before-end-of-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gianni-infantino-announces-he-is-out-as-fifa-president-before-end-of-2026","q":"Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections","soccer","us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0976,"ref":0.0976},{"name":"No","p":0.9024,"ref":0.9024}],"chance":0.0976,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gianni-infantino-announces-he-is-ou","ref":0.0976,"b":1757,"state":[-4087.626803,-180.51478],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239125,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gianni Infantino ceases to be the president of FIFA for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement of Infantino's resignation or firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect. Announcements of intention to resign will qualify, regardless of if or when the resignation goes into effect.\n\nSuspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA or Gianni Infantino, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239100,"p":[0.0976,0.9024],"r":[0.0976,0.9024]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.0976,0.9024],"r":[0.0976,0.9024]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.0976,0.9024],"r":[0.0976,0.9024]},{"at":1791267056,"p":[0.0976,0.9024],"r":[0.0976,0.9024]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":9.76,"bestBid":9,"bestAsk":10,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":10,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":4.7},{"price":11,"shares":187,"people":0,"house":187,"total":25.27},{"price":12,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":45.91},{"price":13,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":66.84},{"price":14,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":87.98},{"price":15,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":109.13}],"bids":[{"price":9,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":14.22},{"price":8,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":32.3},{"price":7,"shares":254,"people":0,"house":254,"total":50.08},{"price":6,"shares":289,"people":0,"house":289,"total":67.42},{"price":5,"shares":339,"people":0,"house":339,"total":84.37},{"price":4,"shares":411,"people":0,"house":411,"total":100.81}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":90.24,"bestBid":90,"bestAsk":91,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":91,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":143.78},{"price":92,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":351.7},{"price":93,"shares":254,"people":0,"house":254,"total":587.92},{"price":94,"shares":289,"people":0,"house":289,"total":859.58},{"price":95,"shares":339,"people":0,"house":339,"total":1181.63},{"price":96,"shares":411,"people":0,"house":411,"total":1576.19}],"bids":[{"price":90,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":42.3},{"price":89,"shares":187,"people":0,"house":187,"total":208.73},{"price":88,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":360.09},{"price":87,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":500.16},{"price":86,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":630.02},{"price":85,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":749.87}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0627,"ref":0.0325},{"name":"No","p":0.9373,"ref":0.9675}],"chance":0.0627,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1786,"trades":55,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0325,"b":6055,"state":[-15199.346856,1176.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le 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ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5122,"ref":0.4907},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3474,"ref":0.3691},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1009,"ref":0.1092},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0169,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0057},{"name":"Itamar Ben 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Sweep","p":0.674,"ref":0.6505},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2433,"ref":0.2632},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0687,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0036,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.674,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":694,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6505,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2211.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.7994,"ref":0.88},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.2006,"ref":0.12}],"chance":0.7994,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1585,"trades":35,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.88,"b":2937,"state":[928.059307,-3133.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}