{"id":1053,"slug":"hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","q":"Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0252,"ref":0.0235},{"name":"No","p":0.9748,"ref":0.9765}],"chance":0.0252,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":10,"trades":[{"at":1791292121,"buyer":"resres92xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"Rosa","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Yes","o":0,"shares":422,"price":2.44,"gold":10.28}],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.0235,"b":5901,"state":[-21711.204416,-140.3289],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791291941,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a \"pandemic\" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a \"pandemic.\" A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:05 AM ET · World Day 854","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"1","p":0.6292,"ref":0.6347},{"name":"2","p":0.3588,"ref":0.3598},{"name":"4","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025},{"name":"3","p":0.004,"ref":0.002},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6292,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","ref":0.6347,"b":6060,"state":[-2807.619204,-6210.73839,-33481.909822,-33481.909822,-33481.909822],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236605,"closes":1803963540,"closesText":"Mar 1, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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7?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"28°C","p":0.3462,"ref":0.3676},{"name":"27°C","p":0.2386,"ref":0.2467},{"name":"29°C","p":0.2246,"ref":0.2274},{"name":"26°C","p":0.0842,"ref":0.1064},{"name":"25°C","p":0.0407,"ref":0.0145},{"name":"30°C","p":0.0182,"ref":0.0155},{"name":"24°C","p":0.0168,"ref":0.0121},{"name":"23°C","p":0.0094,"ref":0.001},{"name":"31°C","p":0.0065,"ref":0.0019},{"name":"22°C or below","p":0.0056,"ref":0.001},{"name":"32°C or 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8?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"90-91°F","p":0.336,"ref":0.3998},{"name":"88-89°F","p":0.1981,"ref":0.3638},{"name":"84-85°F","p":0.1273,"ref":0.0148},{"name":"86-87°F","p":0.1273,"ref":0.0674},{"name":"92-93°F","p":0.0955,"ref":0.0809},{"name":"94-95°F","p":0.0283,"ref":0.0166},{"name":"82-83°F","p":0.0251,"ref":0.0112},{"name":"80-81°F","p":0.0216,"ref":0.0135},{"name":"78-79°F","p":0.018,"ref":0.0126},{"name":"77°F or below","p":0.0145,"ref":0.0135},{"name":"96°F or 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7?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["tokyo","temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"19°C","p":0.17,"ref":0.1636},{"name":"18°C","p":0.1417,"ref":0.1342},{"name":"20°C","p":0.1341,"ref":0.1305},{"name":"21°C","p":0.1322,"ref":0.1305},{"name":"17°C","p":0.1228,"ref":0.125},{"name":"15°C or below","p":0.0944,"ref":0.0919},{"name":"16°C","p":0.0944,"ref":0.0919},{"name":"22°C","p":0.0944,"ref":0.125},{"name":"23°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0029},{"name":"24°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0018},{"name":"25°C or 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8?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["london","temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"15°C","p":0.3898,"ref":0.4445},{"name":"16°C","p":0.2081,"ref":0.3493},{"name":"17°C","p":0.1097,"ref":0.0544},{"name":"13°C","p":0.0984,"ref":0.0544},{"name":"18°C or higher","p":0.0795,"ref":0.0054},{"name":"14°C","p":0.0605,"ref":0.0771},{"name":"12°C","p":0.0303,"ref":0.005},{"name":"8°C or 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}