{"id":228,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-october-6","q":"Highest temperature in Taipei on October 6?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"26°C","p":0.4033,"ref":0.3284},{"name":"25°C","p":0.2689,"ref":0.5383},{"name":"27°C","p":0.1969,"ref":0.1023},{"name":"24°C","p":0.049,"ref":0.001},{"name":"28°C","p":0.0432,"ref":0.0221},{"name":"23°C","p":0.024,"ref":0.001},{"name":"29°C","p":0.0067,"ref":0.0038},{"name":"22°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.0022}],"chance":0.4033,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-taipei-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.3284,"b":1250,"state":[-1134.987134,-1641.818519,-2031.543049,-3770.523482,-3926.97741,-4661.710742,-6252.917836,-6903.41168,-6903.41168],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234685,"closes":1791288000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 AM ET · World Day 852","closesWorldDay":852,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution","rules":"This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.\n\nThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.\n\nIn the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nTo toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.\n\nThis market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nIn the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.\n\nRevisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:11 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1791288000,"resolvesText":"Oct 6, 8 AM ET · World Day 852","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791234660,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.4038,0.2692,0.1971,0.049,0.0433,0.024,0.0067,0.0029,0.0038]},{"at":1791234720,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3984,0.2721,0.1992,0.0505,0.0437,0.0243,0.0068,0.0029,0.0019]},{"at":1791237540,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3889,0.2688,0.1968,0.0523,0.0432,0.0384,0.0067,0.0029,0.0019]},{"at":1791237840,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3917,0.2708,0.1983,0.0527,0.0435,0.0314,0.0068,0.0029,0.0019]},{"at":1791239820,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3819,0.2687,0.198,0.0514,0.0519,0.0368,0.0066,0.0028,0.0019]},{"at":1791240180,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3887,0.2735,0.1967,0.0523,0.048,0.0293,0.0067,0.0029,0.0019]},{"at":1791241860,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3887,0.2735,0.2015,0.0528,0.0528,0.0211,0.0067,0.001,0.0019]},{"at":1791242340,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3951,0.278,0.2,0.0537,0.0439,0.0195,0.0068,0.001,0.002]},{"at":1791242820,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3247,0.3061,0.1762,0.1146,0.051,0.0186,0.006,0.001,0.0019]},{"at":1791252120,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3284,0.5383,0.1023,0.001,0.0221,0.001,0.0038,0.001,0.0022]},{"at":1791252723,"p":[0.4033,0.2689,0.1969,0.049,0.0432,0.024,0.0067,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.3284,0.5383,0.1023,0.001,0.0221,0.001,0.0038,0.001,0.0022]}],"book":[{"outcome":"26°C","o":0,"mid":40.33,"bestBid":40,"bestAsk":41,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":41,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":14.35},{"price":42,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":35.77},{"price":43,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":57.7},{"price":44,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":80.14},{"price":45,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":103.09},{"price":46,"shares":50,"people":0,"house":50,"total":126.09}],"bids":[{"price":40,"shares":17,"people":0,"house":17,"total":6.8},{"price":39,"shares":53,"people":0,"house":53,"total":27.47},{"price":38,"shares":52,"people":0,"house":52,"total":47.23},{"price":37,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":67.21},{"price":36,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":86.65},{"price":35,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":105.55}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"25°C","o":1,"mid":26.89,"bestBid":26,"bestAsk":27,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":27,"shares":7,"people":0,"house":7,"total":1.89},{"price":28,"shares":63,"people":0,"house":63,"total":19.53},{"price":29,"shares":61,"people":0,"house":61,"total":37.22},{"price":30,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":55.22},{"price":31,"shares":59,"people":0,"house":59,"total":73.51},{"price":32,"shares":58,"people":0,"house":58,"total":92.07}],"bids":[{"price":26,"shares":57,"people":0,"house":57,"total":14.82},{"price":25,"shares":66,"people":0,"house":66,"total":31.32},{"price":24,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":47.64},{"price":23,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":63.51},{"price":22,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":79.35},{"price":21,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":94.89}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"27°C","o":2,"mid":19.69,"bestBid":19,"bestAsk":20,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":20,"shares":25,"people":0,"house":25,"total":5},{"price":21,"shares":76,"people":0,"house":76,"total":20.96},{"price":22,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":37.24},{"price":23,"shares":72,"people":0,"house":72,"total":53.8},{"price":24,"shares":70,"people":0,"house":70,"total":70.6},{"price":25,"shares":67,"people":0,"house":67,"total":87.35}],"bids":[{"price":19,"shares":55,"people":0,"house":55,"total":10.45},{"price":18,"shares":83,"people":0,"house":83,"total":25.39},{"price":17,"shares":87,"people":0,"house":87,"total":40.18},{"price":16,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":54.58},{"price":15,"shares":96,"people":0,"house":96,"total":68.98},{"price":14,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":83.12}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"24°C","o":3,"mid":4.9,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":27,"people":0,"house":27,"total":1.35},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":15.81},{"price":7,"shares":206,"people":0,"house":206,"total":30.23},{"price":8,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":44.71},{"price":9,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":59.2},{"price":10,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":73.7}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":265,"people":0,"house":265,"total":10.6},{"price":3,"shares":372,"people":0,"house":372,"total":21.76},{"price":2,"shares":520,"people":0,"house":520,"total":32.16},{"price":1,"shares":879,"people":0,"house":879,"total":40.95}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"28°C","o":4,"mid":4.32,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":191,"people":0,"house":191,"total":9.55},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":24.01},{"price":7,"shares":206,"people":0,"house":206,"total":38.43},{"price":8,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":52.91},{"price":9,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":67.4},{"price":10,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":81.9}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":4.04},{"price":3,"shares":372,"people":0,"house":372,"total":15.2},{"price":2,"shares":520,"people":0,"house":520,"total":25.6},{"price":1,"shares":879,"people":0,"house":879,"total":34.39}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"23°C","o":5,"mid":2.4,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":286,"people":0,"house":286,"total":8.58},{"price":4,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":23.5},{"price":5,"shares":292,"people":0,"house":292,"total":38.1},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":52.56},{"price":7,"shares":206,"people":0,"house":206,"total":66.98},{"price":8,"shares":180,"people":0,"house":180,"total":81.38}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":233,"people":0,"house":233,"total":4.66},{"price":1,"shares":880,"people":0,"house":880,"total":13.46}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"29°C","o":6,"mid":0.67,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":501,"people":0,"house":501,"total":5.01},{"price":2,"shares":879,"people":0,"house":879,"total":22.59},{"price":3,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":38.16},{"price":4,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":53.08},{"price":5,"shares":292,"people":0,"house":292,"total":67.68},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":82.14}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"22°C","o":7,"mid":0.4,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":1155,"people":0,"house":1155,"total":11.55},{"price":2,"shares":879,"people":0,"house":879,"total":29.13},{"price":3,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":44.7},{"price":4,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":59.62},{"price":5,"shares":292,"people":0,"house":292,"total":74.22},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":88.68}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":8,"mid":0.4,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":1155,"people":0,"house":1155,"total":11.55},{"price":2,"shares":879,"people":0,"house":879,"total":29.13},{"price":3,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":44.7},{"price":4,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":59.62},{"price":5,"shares":292,"people":0,"house":292,"total":74.22},{"price":6,"shares":241,"people":0,"house":241,"total":88.68}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"26°C","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"25°C","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"27°C","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"24°C","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"28°C","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"23°C","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"29°C","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"22°C","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":8,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":176,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-helsinki-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-helsinki-on-october-6","q":"Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 6?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"16°C","p":0.5895,"ref":0.6066},{"name":"15°C","p":0.3483,"ref":0.362},{"name":"14°C","p":0.0386,"ref":0.001},{"name":"17°C","p":0.012,"ref":0.023},{"name":"13°C","p":0.0044,"ref":0.001},{"name":"18°C","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0024},{"name":"Other","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0039}],"chance":0.5895,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":134,"trades":4,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-helsinki-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.6066,"b":1476.25,"state":[-646.220307,-1423.133556,-4671.992591,-6399.310278,-7865.598208,-8154.246985,-8154.246985],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233485,"closes":1791288000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 AM ET · World Day 852","closesWorldDay":852,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":273,"slug":"where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","q":"Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"1","p":0.6292,"ref":0.6382},{"name":"2","p":0.3588,"ref":0.3563},{"name":"4","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025},{"name":"3","p":0.004,"ref":0.002},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6292,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-record","ref":0.6382,"b":6060,"state":[-2807.619204,-6210.73839,-33481.909822,-33481.909822,-33481.909822],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236605,"closes":1803963540,"closesText":"Mar 1, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 4,373","closesWorldDay":4373,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":371,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-october-6","q":"Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 6?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"24°C","p":0.6126,"ref":0.6535},{"name":"23°C","p":0.3039,"ref":0.2772},{"name":"22°C","p":0.0358,"ref":0.0118},{"name":"25°C","p":0.0358,"ref":0.0515},{"name":"21°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0015},{"name":"26°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6126,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-shanghai-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.6535,"b":1937.5,"state":[-949.455451,-2307.990446,-6452.806767,-6452.806767,-10698.286357,-10698.286357,-10698.286357],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791240325,"closes":1791288000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 AM ET · World Day 852","closesWorldDay":852,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":164,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-busan-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-busan-on-october-6","q":"Highest temperature in Busan on October 6?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"24°C","p":0.5047,"ref":0.5212},{"name":"23°C","p":0.2718,"ref":0.3185},{"name":"25°C","p":0.165,"ref":0.1303},{"name":"22°C","p":0.0422,"ref":0.0164},{"name":"26°C","p":0.0044,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"21°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"27°C","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.0019}],"chance":0.5047,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-busan-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.5212,"b":1597.5,"state":[-1092.388759,-2081.303895,-2878.442283,-5055.894687,-8680.116645,-8824.159815,-8824.159815,-8824.159815],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233125,"closes":1791288000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 AM ET · World Day 852","closesWorldDay":852,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":78,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-7","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-7","q":"Highest temperature in NYC on October 7?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"68-69°F","p":0.4222,"ref":0.4242},{"name":"66-67°F","p":0.3566,"ref":0.363},{"name":"70-71°F","p":0.1501,"ref":0.1414},{"name":"64-65°F","p":0.0366,"ref":0.0401},{"name":"72-73°F","p":0.0099,"ref":0.0099},{"name":"74-75°F","p":0.0084,"ref":0.0085},{"name":"78°F or higher","p":0.007,"ref":0.0071},{"name":"62-63°F","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0047},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4222,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-nyc-on-october-7-2026","ref":0.4242,"b":1250,"state":[-1077.747166,-1289.092578,-2370.339375,-4134.854586,-5775.087573,-5967.775922,-6195.677868,-6583.371529,-6902.133477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231925,"closes":1791374400,"closesText":"Oct 7, 8 AM ET · World Day 876","closesWorldDay":876,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":79,"slug":"highest-temperature-in-chongqing-on-october-7","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/highest-temperature-in-chongqing-on-october-7","q":"Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 7?","cat":"weather","catName":"Weather","emoji":"⛅","tags":["temperature"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"28°C","p":0.3462,"ref":0.3285},{"name":"27°C","p":0.2386,"ref":0.2898},{"name":"29°C","p":0.2246,"ref":0.227},{"name":"26°C","p":0.0842,"ref":0.087},{"name":"25°C","p":0.0407,"ref":0.0314},{"name":"30°C","p":0.0182,"ref":0.014},{"name":"24°C","p":0.0168,"ref":0.0116},{"name":"23°C","p":0.0094,"ref":0.0019},{"name":"31°C","p":0.0065,"ref":0.0019},{"name":"22°C or below","p":0.0056,"ref":0.001},{"name":"32°C or higher","p":0.0051,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.3462,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-chongqing-on-october-7-2026","ref":0.3285,"b":1250,"state":[-1325.955588,-1791.254914,-1867.035691,-3093.072257,-4001.883173,-5004.816263,-5104.869648,-5839.602979,-6285.446659,-6478.135009,-6586.89923,-6902.146649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231925,"closes":1791374400,"closesText":"Oct 7, 8 AM ET · World Day 876","closesWorldDay":876,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}