{"id":353,"slug":"houthis-enter-aden-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/houthis-enter-aden-by-october-31-2026","q":"Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.105,"ref":0.115},{"name":"No","p":0.895,"ref":0.885}],"chance":0.105,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-aden-byptptpt","ref":0.115,"b":2783,"state":[-6272.311287,-308.722533],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791239605,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Houthis enter Aden by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\"Houthi military forces\" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.\n\n\"Aden\" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.\n\n\"Enter\" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.\n\nThe entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.\n\nIn the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:33 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1793505540,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791239580,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.105,0.895]},{"at":1791240420,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.13,0.87]},{"at":1791241200,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.135,0.865]},{"at":1791242820,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.12,0.88]},{"at":1791243180,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.115,0.885]},{"at":1791244020,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.12,0.88]},{"at":1791246180,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.135,0.865]},{"at":1791249780,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.145,0.855]},{"at":1791250980,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.135,0.865]},{"at":1791256980,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.145,0.855]},{"at":1791258180,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.115,0.885]},{"at":1791260700,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.12,0.88]},{"at":1791262380,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.115,0.885]},{"at":1791269774,"p":[0.105,0.895],"r":[0.115,0.885]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":10.5,"bestBid":10,"bestAsk":11,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":11,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":15.95},{"price":12,"shares":274,"people":0,"house":274,"total":48.83},{"price":13,"shares":254,"people":0,"house":254,"total":81.85},{"price":14,"shares":239,"people":0,"house":239,"total":115.31},{"price":15,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":148.91},{"price":16,"shares":213,"people":0,"house":213,"total":182.99}],"bids":[{"price":10,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":15.1},{"price":9,"shares":324,"people":0,"house":324,"total":44.26},{"price":8,"shares":358,"people":0,"house":358,"total":72.9},{"price":7,"shares":402,"people":0,"house":402,"total":101.04},{"price":6,"shares":459,"people":0,"house":459,"total":128.58},{"price":5,"shares":537,"people":0,"house":537,"total":155.43}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":89.5,"bestBid":89,"bestAsk":90,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":90,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":135.9},{"price":91,"shares":324,"people":0,"house":324,"total":430.74},{"price":92,"shares":358,"people":0,"house":358,"total":760.1},{"price":93,"shares":402,"people":0,"house":402,"total":1133.96},{"price":94,"shares":459,"people":0,"house":459,"total":1565.42},{"price":95,"shares":537,"people":0,"house":537,"total":2075.57}],"bids":[{"price":89,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":129.05},{"price":88,"shares":274,"people":0,"house":274,"total":370.17},{"price":87,"shares":254,"people":0,"house":254,"total":591.15},{"price":86,"shares":239,"people":0,"house":239,"total":796.69},{"price":85,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":987.09},{"price":84,"shares":213,"people":0,"house":213,"total":1166.01}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed 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December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.7336},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2216},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0289,"ref":0.029},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0123,"ref":0.0113},{"name":"50+ bps decrease","p":0.004,"ref":0.0034},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7303,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632","ref":0.7336,"b":5797.5,"state":[-1822.308564,-8763.561489,-20542.401019,-25520.491755,-32014.398889,-32014.398889],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1796878740,"closesText":"Dec 9, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,405","closesWorldDay":2405,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}