{"id":437,"slug":"how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","q":"How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video stream?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"less than 2 years","p":0.5846,"ref":0.5863},{"name":"less than 4 years","p":0.3451,"ref":0.3461},{"name":"less than 14 years","p":0.0185,"ref":0.0186},{"name":"less than 16 years","p":0.0119,"ref":0.012},{"name":"less than 12 years","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"less than 6 years","p":0.0076,"ref":0.0077},{"name":"less than 8 years","p":0.0071,"ref":0.0071},{"name":"less than 10 years","p":0.0068,"ref":0.0068},{"name":"less than 18 years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025},{"name":"more than 18 years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025}],"chance":0.5846,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sc/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an","ref":0.5863,"b":939,"state":[-504.129168,-999.011457,-3745.790825,-4159.019899,-4291.657876,-4576.814074,-4646.33886,-4683.785442,-5187.454372,-5187.454372],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791241765,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve when an app is publicly available on any app store for mobile phone. \n\nNot that it should be an app able to translate from a video stream. The app should be reliable enough to follow and understand a 10min video with only sign language. The app should be able to translate different people at different distance and under different lightning, etc... Models pre-trained to understand a few words signed by a single individual (such as:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/pDXdlXlaCco)) do not count.\nThe resolution will be established starting from the initial publication of the post (19 of March 2024) and will resolve to one single option as follow: if the app is published at anytime between now and 18 of March 2026, the accepted answer will be two years, between 19 of March 2026 and 18th of March 2028 the accepted answer will be 4 and so on. If no app exists after 19 of March 2042 the market will resolve to more than 18 years .\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:09 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1830556740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,760","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791241740,"p":[0.5846,0.3451,0.0185,0.0119,0.0104,0.0076,0.0071,0.0068,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.5863,0.3461,0.0186,0.012,0.0104,0.0077,0.0071,0.0068,0.0025,0.0025]},{"at":1791253260,"p":[0.5846,0.3451,0.0185,0.0119,0.0104,0.0076,0.0071,0.0068,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.5863,0.3461,0.0186,0.012,0.0104,0.0077,0.0071,0.0068,0.0025,0.0025]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.5846,0.3451,0.0185,0.0119,0.0104,0.0076,0.0071,0.0068,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.5863,0.3461,0.0186,0.012,0.0104,0.0077,0.0071,0.0068,0.0025,0.0025]},{"at":1791269672,"p":[0.5846,0.3451,0.0185,0.0119,0.0104,0.0076,0.0071,0.0068,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.5863,0.3461,0.0186,0.012,0.0104,0.0077,0.0071,0.0068,0.0025,0.0025]}],"book":[{"outcome":"less than 2 years","o":0,"mid":58.46,"bestBid":58,"bestAsk":59,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":59,"shares":21,"people":0,"house":21,"total":12.39},{"price":60,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":35.79},{"price":61,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":59.58},{"price":62,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":84.38},{"price":63,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":109.58},{"price":64,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":135.82}],"bids":[{"price":58,"shares":18,"people":0,"house":18,"total":10.44},{"price":57,"shares":38,"people":0,"house":38,"total":32.1},{"price":56,"shares":38,"people":0,"house":38,"total":53.38},{"price":55,"shares":38,"people":0,"house":38,"total":74.28},{"price":54,"shares":38,"people":0,"house":38,"total":94.8},{"price":53,"shares":38,"people":0,"house":38,"total":114.94}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 4 years","o":1,"mid":34.51,"bestBid":34,"bestAsk":35,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":35,"shares":20,"people":0,"house":20,"total":7},{"price":36,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":21.76},{"price":37,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":36.93},{"price":38,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":52.13},{"price":39,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":67.73},{"price":40,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":83.33}],"bids":[{"price":34,"shares":21,"people":0,"house":21,"total":7.14},{"price":33,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":21},{"price":32,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":34.76},{"price":31,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":48.4},{"price":30,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":61.6},{"price":29,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":74.65}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 14 years","o":2,"mid":1.85,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":74,"people":0,"house":74,"total":1.48},{"price":3,"shares":390,"people":0,"house":390,"total":13.18},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":24.38},{"price":5,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":35.33},{"price":6,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":46.25},{"price":7,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":57.03}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":587,"people":0,"house":587,"total":5.87}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 16 years","o":3,"mid":1.19,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":493,"people":0,"house":493,"total":9.86},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":21.59},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":32.79},{"price":5,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":43.74},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":54.6},{"price":7,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":65.45}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":167,"people":0,"house":167,"total":1.67}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 12 years","o":4,"mid":1.04,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":627,"people":0,"house":627,"total":12.54},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":24.27},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":35.47},{"price":5,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":46.42},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":57.28},{"price":7,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":68.13}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":0.33}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 6 years","o":5,"mid":0.76,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":255,"people":0,"house":255,"total":2.55},{"price":2,"shares":660,"people":0,"house":660,"total":15.75},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":27.48},{"price":4,"shares":279,"people":0,"house":279,"total":38.64},{"price":5,"shares":220,"people":0,"house":220,"total":49.64},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":60.5}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 8 years","o":6,"mid":0.71,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":325,"people":0,"house":325,"total":3.25},{"price":2,"shares":660,"people":0,"house":660,"total":16.45},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":28.18},{"price":4,"shares":279,"people":0,"house":279,"total":39.34},{"price":5,"shares":220,"people":0,"house":220,"total":50.34},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":61.2}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 10 years","o":7,"mid":0.68,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":363,"people":0,"house":363,"total":3.63},{"price":2,"shares":660,"people":0,"house":660,"total":16.83},{"price":3,"shares":390,"people":0,"house":390,"total":28.53},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":39.73},{"price":5,"shares":220,"people":0,"house":220,"total":50.73},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":61.59}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"less than 18 years","o":8,"mid":0.4,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":869,"people":0,"house":869,"total":8.69},{"price":2,"shares":660,"people":0,"house":660,"total":21.89},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":33.62},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":44.82},{"price":5,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":55.77},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":66.63}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"more than 18 years","o":9,"mid":0.4,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":869,"people":0,"house":869,"total":8.69},{"price":2,"shares":660,"people":0,"house":660,"total":21.89},{"price":3,"shares":391,"people":0,"house":391,"total":33.62},{"price":4,"shares":280,"people":0,"house":280,"total":44.82},{"price":5,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":55.77},{"price":6,"shares":181,"people":0,"house":181,"total":66.63}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"less than 2 years","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 4 years","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 14 years","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 16 years","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 12 years","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 6 years","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 8 years","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 10 years","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"less than 18 years","o":8,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"more than 18 years","o":9,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7928,"ref":0.885},{"name":"No","p":0.2072,"ref":0.115}],"chance":0.7928,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":947,"trades":28,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.885,"b":2754,"state":[307.848342,-3386.969143],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2374,"ref":0.145},{"name":"No","p":0.7626,"ref":0.855}],"chance":0.2374,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1360,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.145,"b":3495,"state":[-3664.92027,413.494934],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":257,"slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","q":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.705},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.2762},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.012},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.705,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":670,"slug":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-4-0t-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-4-0t-by-december-31","q":"Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.074,"ref":0.0675},{"name":"No","p":0.926,"ref":0.9325}],"chance":0.074,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","ref":0.0675,"b":3895,"state":[-10141.373274,-299.451668],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1799125140,"closesText":"Jan 4, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":669,"slug":"will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.115,"ref":0.115},{"name":"No","p":0.885,"ref":0.885}],"chance":0.115,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/oklahoma-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.115,"b":2998,"state":[-6484.143806,-366.258567],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1814414340,"closesText":"Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 7,276","closesWorldDay":7276,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":58,"slug":"will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-ohio-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2026","q":"Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.045},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.955}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ohio-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260928","ref":0.045,"b":2805,"state":[-8135.683973,-158.679836],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}