{"id":331,"slug":"in-2028-will-traditional-big-tech-be-clearly-ahead-of-ai-specific-companies-in","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/in-2028-will-traditional-big-tech-be-clearly-ahead-of-ai-specific-companies-in","q":"In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2029,"ref":0.2029},{"name":"No","p":0.7971,"ref":0.7971}],"chance":0.2029,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-traditional-big-tech-b","ref":0.2029,"b":1442,"state":[-2299.976424,-327.028633],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791238645,"closes":1830383940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,712","closesWorldDay":11712,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"That is, will Google, Facebook, Apple, etc be ahead of OpenAI, Anthropic, etc, in artificial intelligence?\n\nI will grade this as true if it seems obvious that they are ahead in most fields of AI. This will be based on technology; not commercialization; if OpenAI has an advanced AI sitting in a lab, but Google has a slightly weaker one that has made $10 billion, OpenAI will still win. \n\nAnything developed in-house at DeepMind will be considered to come from an AI-specific company; anything developed at the rest of Google will be Big Tech. If the distinction has blurred by 2028, I might resolve this as N/A if that becomes the deciding factor.\n\nIf a Chinese or other foreign company is in the lead, I will resolve this based on whether they are the Chinese equivalent of Big Tech or a new AI specific company. If a government or other institution is in the lead, I will ignore them, and judge only the difference between Big Tech and specific companies.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:17 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1830643140,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}