{"id":30,"slug":"in-early-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-generate-a-full-high-quality-movie-to-a","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/in-early-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-generate-a-full-high-quality-movie-to-a","q":"In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","movies"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.49,"ref":0.4881},{"name":"No","p":0.51,"ref":0.5119}],"chance":0.49,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener","ref":0.4881,"b":3293,"state":[-2348.885205,-2217.492698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1830412740,"closesText":"Jan 2, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 11,720","closesWorldDay":11720,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"EG \"make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover\". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1830671940,"resolvesText":"Jan 5, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}