{"id":667,"slug":"iran-oman-hormuz-agreement-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/iran-oman-hormuz-agreement-by-october-31","q":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.255,"ref":0.215},{"name":"No","p":0.745,"ref":0.785}],"chance":0.255,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871","ref":0.215,"b":3220,"state":[-4400.103383,-947.874815],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1793491140,"closesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","closesWorldDay":1464,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nA diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran.\n\nA qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies.\n\nAll listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.\n\nEach announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.\n \nWhether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last co","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 12:13 AM ET · World Day 845","resolves":1793491140,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 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announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2095,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.7905,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2095,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1243,"trades":30,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"b":4035,"state":[-5063.546621,295.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8273,"ref":0.875},{"name":"No","p":0.1727,"ref":0.125}],"chance":0.8273,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2074,"trades":33,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.875,"b":2983,"state":[1508.675856,-3163.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.219,"ref":0.225},{"name":"No","p":0.781,"ref":0.775}],"chance":0.219,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":886,"trades":24,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.225,"b":4819,"state":[-6431.368032,-304.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0972,"ref":0.0485},{"name":"No","p":0.9028,"ref":0.9515}],"chance":0.0972,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":589,"trades":28,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.0485,"b":6064,"state":[-13674.825141,-158.475351],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0643,"ref":0.0255},{"name":"No","p":0.9357,"ref":0.9745}],"chance":0.0643,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":828,"trades":35,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.0255,"b":6328,"state":[-16746.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0859,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9141,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0859,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":204,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"b":6143,"state":[-14873.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}