{"id":975,"slug":"is-lumina-probiotics-a-scam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/is-lumina-probiotics-a-scam","q":"Is Lumina probiotics a scam?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.4942,"ref":0.4942},{"name":"No","p":0.5058,"ref":0.5058}],"chance":0.4942,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/drcat/will-lumina-probiotics-be-discovere","ref":0.4942,"b":1357,"state":[-956.523012,-924.863095],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791285221,"closes":1795841940,"closesText":"Nov 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,117","closesWorldDay":2117,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"https://www.luminaprobiotic.com/ \n\nPrompted by @Aella‘s tweet of the company and procedure. \n\nResolved YES if any major news outlet reports on the scam, or a decent dossie or exposed text appears online. Also resolved if @Aella changes her mind. Also resolved if the company shuts down or mysteriously disappears.\n\nResolved NO if the company publishes research demonstrating its efficacy in humans, or if it gets through any board of certification (like the FDA), or even if it demonstrates that it started clinical trials under any serious institutional oversight. \n\nThis market is specific for Lumina probiotics and will not resolve “no” if a similar or same procedure is approved through another company\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}