{"id":727,"slug":"ism-services-pmi-october-2026-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/ism-services-pmi-october-2026-who-wins","q":"ISM Services PMI - October 2026: who wins?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"<51.0","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"51.0 to 51.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"52.0 to 52.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0987},{"name":"53.0 to 53.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.1283},{"name":"54.0 to 54.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"55.0 to 55.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"56.0 to 56.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0987},{"name":"57.0 to 57.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"58.0 to 58.9","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"59.0+","p":0.0996,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.0996,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/ism-services-pmi-october-2026","ref":0.0962,"b":1250,"state":[-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-2883.225377,-6905.820558],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791263861,"closes":1793804400,"closesText":"Nov 4, 10 AM ET · World Day 1,551","closesWorldDay":1551,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.","rules":"This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.\n\nThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.\n\nNote: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term \"percent\" in its official release (e.g., \"The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent\"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.\n\nNote: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.\n\nIf ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 1:17 AM ET · World Day 846","resolves":1793804400,"resolvesText":"Nov 4, 10 AM ET · World Day 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