{"id":575,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.915,"ref":0.935},{"name":"No","p":0.085,"ref":0.065}],"chance":0.915,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.935,"b":1278,"state":[-113.526291,-3150.402941],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791255207,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.\n\nA qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.\n\nThe following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:\nMunitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;\nSurface-to-air missile strikes;\nSmall-arms fire;\nGround incursions;\nCyber operations;\nNaval gunfire and artillery fire;\nHowitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);\nMinor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;\nAny threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.\n\nAny munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.\n\nA military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.\n\nThe occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 10:53 PM ET · World Day 843","resolves":1792123140,"resolvesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7751,"ref":0.83},{"name":"No","p":0.2249,"ref":0.17}],"chance":0.7751,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":551,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.83,"b":4181,"state":[-538.93278,-5712.366795],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793478540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 1,461","closesWorldDay":1461,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":526,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 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2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0982,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"No","p":0.9018,"ref":0.9775}],"chance":0.0982,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2979,"trades":69,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","ref":0.0225,"b":3794,"state":[-6338.639617,2076.252394],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":106,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 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2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.38,"ref":0.365},{"name":"No","p":0.62,"ref":0.635}],"chance":0.38,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31","ref":0.365,"b":3225,"state":[-3120.458485,-1541.665458],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791276941,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":108,"slug":"saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","q":"Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}