{"id":495,"slug":"kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-december-31","q":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-december-31-20260730004337418","ref":0.055,"b":3704,"state":[-10743.163435,-209.536582],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791245245,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 8:07 PM ET · World Day 841","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791245220,"p":[0.055,0.945],"r":[0.055,0.945]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.055,0.945],"r":[0.055,0.945]},{"at":1791267660,"p":[0.055,0.945],"r":[0.055,0.945]},{"at":1791278460,"p":[0.055,0.945],"r":[0.055,0.945]},{"at":1791281457,"p":[0.055,0.945],"r":[0.055,0.945]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":5.5,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":6,"shares":342,"people":0,"house":342,"total":20.52},{"price":7,"shares":611,"people":0,"house":611,"total":63.29},{"price":8,"shares":534,"people":0,"house":534,"total":106.01},{"price":9,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":148.94},{"price":10,"shares":431,"people":0,"house":431,"total":192.04},{"price":11,"shares":395,"people":0,"house":395,"total":235.49}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":18.65},{"price":4,"shares":865,"people":0,"house":865,"total":53.25},{"price":3,"shares":1104,"people":0,"house":1104,"total":86.37},{"price":2,"shares":1540,"people":0,"house":1540,"total":117.17},{"price":1,"shares":2605,"people":0,"house":2605,"total":143.22}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":94.5,"bestBid":94,"bestAsk":95,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":95,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":354.35},{"price":96,"shares":865,"people":0,"house":865,"total":1184.75},{"price":97,"shares":1104,"people":0,"house":1104,"total":2255.63},{"price":98,"shares":1540,"people":0,"house":1540,"total":3764.83},{"price":99,"shares":2605,"people":0,"house":2605,"total":6343.78}],"bids":[{"price":94,"shares":342,"people":0,"house":342,"total":321.48},{"price":93,"shares":611,"people":0,"house":611,"total":889.71},{"price":92,"shares":534,"people":0,"house":534,"total":1380.99},{"price":91,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":1815.06},{"price":90,"shares":431,"people":0,"house":431,"total":2202.96},{"price":89,"shares":395,"people":0,"house":395,"total":2554.51}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6127,"ref":0.6508},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.3177,"ref":0.2633},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0578,"ref":0.0745},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0087,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"Other","p":0.0031,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6127,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1971,"trades":18,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6508,"b":7367.5,"state":[-1637.59857,-6475.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0819,"ref":0.031},{"name":"No","p":0.9181,"ref":0.969}],"chance":0.0819,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2384,"trades":75,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.031,"b":6055,"state":[-13030.346856,1605.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Zemmour","p":0.0084,"ref":0.0098},{"name":"Other","p":0.0324,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.471,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":881,"trades":21,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4379,"b":9051.25,"state":[-5933.149748,-15327.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26344.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.5212,"ref":0.5003},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3376,"ref":0.3723},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1029,"ref":0.0996},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0164,"ref":0.0162},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.005,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0046,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"Other","p":0.0123,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5212,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":949,"trades":25,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.5003,"b":8067.5,"state":[-4307.562251,-7810.754031,-17400.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}