{"id":522,"slug":"more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","q":"More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.0962},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.9038}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.0962,"b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if there are more than 1,000 officially confirmed or highly suspected cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) linked to the October 2026 Irkutsk outbreak in Russia. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nTimeframe: The cutoff date for counting cases is December 31, 2027, or one full month after the WHO or local agencies declare the potential outbreak is no longer a concern without retraction.\n\nDefinition of Cases: Cases must be officially confirmed or classified as suspected by public health agencies, originating from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute incident.\n\nSources of Truth: The primary sources of truth will be official updates from the Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) or the World Health Organization (WHO). If official statistics are inaccessible, credible reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) stating official figures will be used.\n\nBackground\n\nIn late September 2026, a laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute in Siberia, Russia, contracted plague after a test tube containing live Yersinia pestis bacteria accidentally broke. The worker died on October 1, 2026, from suspected pneumonic plague, leading health authorities to place nearly 200 of her contacts under medical observation.\n\nUnlike bubonic plague, pneumonic plague is highly contagious and can be transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets. While local authorities have implemented strict quarantine measures to contain the spread, this market tracks whether the pathogen breaches containment to cause a major outbreak.\n\nThis description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here you\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 9:09 PM ET · World Day 842","resolves":1830556740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,760","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791248940,"p":[0.1126,0.8874],"r":[0.1126,0.8874]},{"at":1791253380,"p":[0.1126,0.8874],"r":[0.104,0.896]},{"at":1791264411,"p":[0.1126,0.8874],"r":[0.0962,0.9038]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":11.26,"bestBid":11,"bestAsk":12,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":12,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":11.76},{"price":13,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":27.88},{"price":14,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":44.12},{"price":15,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":60.62},{"price":16,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":77.1},{"price":17,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":93.93}],"bids":[{"price":11,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":3.85},{"price":10,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":18.35},{"price":9,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":32.57},{"price":8,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":46.57},{"price":7,"shares":195,"people":0,"house":195,"total":60.22},{"price":6,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":73.66}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":88.74,"bestBid":88,"bestAsk":89,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":89,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":31.15},{"price":90,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":161.65},{"price":91,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":305.43},{"price":92,"shares":175,"people":0,"house":175,"total":466.43},{"price":93,"shares":195,"people":0,"house":195,"total":647.78},{"price":94,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":858.34}],"bids":[{"price":88,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":86.24},{"price":87,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":194.12},{"price":86,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":293.88},{"price":85,"shares":110,"people":0,"house":110,"total":387.38},{"price":84,"shares":103,"people":0,"house":103,"total":473.9},{"price":83,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":556.07}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.075},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.925}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.075,"b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":564,"slug":"will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","q":"Will USGS record a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake from Oct 7 to Oct 13?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5034,"ref":0.5034},{"name":"No","p":0.4966,"ref":0.4966}],"chance":0.5034,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-14&minmagnitude=6.5","ref":0.5034,"b":1500,"state":[-1029.511504,-1050],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":565,"slug":"will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-4-or-more-magnitude-5-5-earthquakes-from-oct-7-to-oct-9","q":"Will USGS record 4 or more magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes from Oct 7 to Oct 9?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5468,"ref":0.5468},{"name":"No","p":0.4532,"ref":0.4532}],"chance":0.5468,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-10&minmagnitude=5.5","ref":0.5468,"b":1500,"state":[-905.636541,-1186.977866],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":720,"slug":"will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","q":"Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2276,"ref":0.2276},{"name":"No","p":0.7724,"ref":0.7724}],"chance":0.2276,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/YaakovSaxon/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-p","ref":0.2276,"b":1454,"state":[-2152.319707,-375.452631],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791263127,"closes":1830383940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,712","closesWorldDay":11712,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":437,"slug":"how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","q":"How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video stream?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"less than 2 years","p":0.5846,"ref":0.5863},{"name":"less than 4 years","p":0.3451,"ref":0.3461},{"name":"less than 14 years","p":0.0185,"ref":0.0186},{"name":"less than 16 years","p":0.0119,"ref":0.012},{"name":"less than 12 years","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"less than 6 years","p":0.0076,"ref":0.0077},{"name":"less than 8 years","p":0.0071,"ref":0.0071},{"name":"less than 10 years","p":0.0068,"ref":0.0068},{"name":"less than 18 years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025},{"name":"more than 18 years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025}],"chance":0.5846,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sc/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an","ref":0.5863,"b":939,"state":[-504.129168,-999.011457,-3745.790825,-4159.019899,-4291.657876,-4576.814074,-4646.33886,-4683.785442,-5187.454372,-5187.454372],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791241765,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":210,"slug":"acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-refuel-a-starship-in-orbit-during-2026","q":"[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["spacex","space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0476,"ref":0.0476},{"name":"No","p":0.9524,"ref":0.9524}],"chance":0.0476,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r","ref":0.0476,"b":1711,"state":[-5208.60746,-83.508497],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234325,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}