{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.055,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.055,"b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:27 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.0723},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.9277}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.0723,"b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":564,"slug":"will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-usgs-record-a-magnitude-6-5-earthquake-from-oct-7-to-oct-13","q":"Will USGS record a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake from Oct 7 to Oct 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9?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["earthquakes"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.5468,"ref":0.5468},{"name":"No","p":0.4532,"ref":0.4532}],"chance":0.5468,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"quake","source":"USGS","sourceUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?format=geojson&starttime=2026-10-07&endtime=2026-10-10&minmagnitude=5.5","ref":0.5468,"b":1500,"state":[-905.636541,-1186.977866],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791253286,"closes":1791331200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 8 PM ET · World Day 864","closesWorldDay":864,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":720,"slug":"will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-planned","q":"Will SLS be used for Artemis 3 as planned?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2276,"ref":0.2276},{"name":"No","p":0.7724,"ref":0.7724}],"chance":0.2276,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/YaakovSaxon/will-sls-be-used-for-artemis-3-as-p","ref":0.2276,"b":1454,"state":[-2152.319707,-375.452631],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791263127,"closes":1830383940,"closesText":"Jan 1, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,712","closesWorldDay":11712,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":769,"slug":"will-there-be-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-presented-by-the-end-of-the","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-there-be-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-presented-by-the-end-of-the","q":"Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0643,"ref":0.0643},{"name":"No","p":0.9357,"ref":0.9357}],"chance":0.0643,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/HakanKarlsson/will-evidence-supporting-the-existe-e0140acc5f08","ref":0.0643,"b":1290,"state":[-3540.605662,-85.693114],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791268901,"closes":1862002740,"closesText":"Jan 1, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 20,495","closesWorldDay":20495,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":437,"slug":"how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an-app-that-automatically-translates-sign","q":"How long will it take to create an app that automatically translates sign language live from a video 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years","p":0.004,"ref":0.0025}],"chance":0.5846,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/sc/how-long-will-it-take-to-create-an","ref":0.5863,"b":939,"state":[-504.129168,-999.011457,-3745.790825,-4159.019899,-4291.657876,-4576.814074,-4646.33886,-4683.785442,-5187.454372,-5187.454372],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791241765,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}