{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4317,"ref":0.4405},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1781,"ref":0.1875},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1203,"ref":0.1267},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1179,"ref":0.1247},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0509,"ref":0.0512},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0207,"ref":0.0218},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.014,"ref":0.0147},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.012,"ref":0.0126},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0101,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0091,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Other","p":0.0351,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4317,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":143,"trades":[{"at":1791244405,"buyer":"resres257xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"lantern71","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":58,"price":43.1,"gold":25},{"at":1791238465,"buyer":"resres568xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"gliarloop","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":29,"price":43,"gold":12.47},{"at":1791238345,"buyer":"resres229xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"spark2","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":38,"price":42.89,"gold":16.3},{"at":1791237565,"buyer":"resres183xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"StaticKettleFox","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":38,"price":42.79,"gold":16.26},{"at":1791237325,"buyer":"resres603xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"Compass_Run","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":45,"price":42.69,"gold":19.21},{"at":1791233965,"buyer":"resres426xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"orru_miko","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"shares":79,"price":42.51,"gold":33.58},{"at":1791232465,"buyer":"resres113xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"novarelay","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"François Hollande","o":4,"shares":408,"price":5.05,"gold":20.59}],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4405,"b":9051.25,"state":[-7459.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26818.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.","rules":"The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. \n\nThe President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.\n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:33 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1808107140,"resolvesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232380,"p":[0.4249,0.1809,0.1222,0.1198,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0103,0.0093,0.0357],"r":[0.4249,0.1809,0.1222,0.1198,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0103,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791232440,"p":[0.424,0.1805,0.122,0.1195,0.0515,0.021,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0093,0.0356],"r":[0.4249,0.1809,0.1222,0.1198,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0103,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791233160,"p":[0.424,0.1805,0.122,0.1195,0.0515,0.021,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0093,0.0356],"r":[0.4397,0.1873,0.1265,0.124,0.0521,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0107,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791233400,"p":[0.424,0.1805,0.122,0.1195,0.0515,0.021,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0093,0.0356],"r":[0.4245,0.1808,0.1221,0.1197,0.0503,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0103,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791233640,"p":[0.424,0.1805,0.122,0.1195,0.0515,0.021,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0093,0.0356],"r":[0.4397,0.1873,0.1265,0.124,0.0521,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0107,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791233940,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4397,0.1873,0.1265,0.124,0.0521,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0107,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791234900,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4247,0.1808,0.1222,0.1197,0.0503,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0093,0.0093,0.0362]},{"at":1791235140,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4403,0.1874,0.1267,0.1241,0.0521,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0096,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791235440,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4245,0.1808,0.1221,0.1197,0.0503,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0093,0.0093,0.0366]},{"at":1791236040,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.44,0.1874,0.1266,0.124,0.0527,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0096,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791236340,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4306,0.1833,0.1239,0.1214,0.051,0.0213,0.0144,0.0124,0.0094,0.0094,0.0228]},{"at":1791236640,"p":[0.4261,0.1798,0.1215,0.1191,0.0514,0.0209,0.0141,0.0122,0.0102,0.0092,0.0355],"r":[0.4403,0.1875,0.1267,0.1241,0.0522,0.0218,0.0147,0.0127,0.0096,0.0095,0.001]},{"at":1791237300,"p":[0.4273,0.1795,0.1213,0.1188,0.0512,0.0209,0.0141,0.0121,0.0102,0.0092,0.0354],"r":[0.4388,0.1869,0.1263,0.1253,0.0527,0.022,0.0148,0.0128,0.0097,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791237540,"p":[0.4284,0.1791,0.121,0.1186,0.0512,0.0208,0.014,0.0121,0.0102,0.0092,0.0353],"r":[0.4388,0.1869,0.1263,0.1253,0.0527,0.022,0.0148,0.0128,0.0097,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791237900,"p":[0.4284,0.1791,0.121,0.1186,0.0512,0.0208,0.014,0.0121,0.0102,0.0092,0.0353],"r":[0.4254,0.1811,0.1224,0.1199,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0093,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791238320,"p":[0.4294,0.1788,0.1208,0.1184,0.0511,0.0208,0.014,0.0121,0.0101,0.0092,0.0353],"r":[0.4254,0.1811,0.1224,0.1199,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0093,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791238440,"p":[0.4302,0.1786,0.1207,0.1182,0.051,0.0208,0.014,0.0121,0.0101,0.0092,0.0352],"r":[0.4254,0.1811,0.1224,0.1199,0.0494,0.021,0.0142,0.0122,0.0093,0.0093,0.0357]},{"at":1791238980,"p":[0.4302,0.1786,0.1207,0.1182,0.051,0.0208,0.014,0.0121,0.0101,0.0092,0.0352],"r":[0.4404,0.1875,0.1267,0.1247,0.0512,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0096,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791244380,"p":[0.4317,0.1781,0.1203,0.1179,0.0509,0.0207,0.014,0.012,0.0101,0.0091,0.0351],"r":[0.4405,0.1875,0.1267,0.1247,0.0512,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0096,0.0096,0.001]},{"at":1791246254,"p":[0.4317,0.1781,0.1203,0.1179,0.0509,0.0207,0.014,0.012,0.0101,0.0091,0.0351],"r":[0.4405,0.1875,0.1267,0.1247,0.0512,0.0218,0.0147,0.0126,0.0096,0.0096,0.001]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"mid":43.17,"bestBid":43,"bestAsk":44,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":44,"shares":304,"people":0,"house":304,"total":133.76},{"price":45,"shares":367,"people":0,"house":367,"total":298.91},{"price":46,"shares":365,"people":0,"house":365,"total":466.81},{"price":47,"shares":364,"people":0,"house":364,"total":637.89},{"price":48,"shares":363,"people":0,"house":363,"total":812.13},{"price":49,"shares":362,"people":0,"house":362,"total":989.51}],"bids":[{"price":43,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":27.52},{"price":42,"shares":370,"people":0,"house":370,"total":182.92},{"price":41,"shares":373,"people":0,"house":373,"total":335.85},{"price":40,"shares":376,"people":0,"house":376,"total":486.25},{"price":39,"shares":379,"people":0,"house":379,"total":634.06},{"price":38,"shares":382,"people":0,"house":382,"total":779.22}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Édouard Philippe","o":1,"mid":17.81,"bestBid":17,"bestAsk":18,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":18,"shares":118,"people":0,"house":118,"total":21.24},{"price":19,"shares":600,"people":0,"house":600,"total":135.24},{"price":20,"shares":577,"people":0,"house":577,"total":250.64},{"price":21,"shares":555,"people":0,"house":555,"total":367.19},{"price":22,"shares":537,"people":0,"house":537,"total":485.33},{"price":23,"shares":519,"people":0,"house":519,"total":604.7}],"bids":[{"price":17,"shares":509,"people":0,"house":509,"total":86.53},{"price":16,"shares":657,"people":0,"house":657,"total":191.65},{"price":15,"shares":692,"people":0,"house":692,"total":295.45},{"price":14,"shares":730,"people":0,"house":730,"total":397.65},{"price":13,"shares":775,"people":0,"house":775,"total":498.4},{"price":12,"shares":828,"people":0,"house":828,"total":597.76}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","o":2,"mid":12.03,"bestBid":12,"bestAsk":13,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":13,"shares":800,"people":0,"house":800,"total":104},{"price":14,"shares":775,"people":0,"house":775,"total":212.5},{"price":15,"shares":731,"people":0,"house":731,"total":322.15},{"price":16,"shares":691,"people":0,"house":691,"total":432.71},{"price":17,"shares":657,"people":0,"house":657,"total":544.4},{"price":18,"shares":627,"people":0,"house":627,"total":657.26}],"bids":[{"price":12,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":3.36},{"price":11,"shares":890,"people":0,"house":890,"total":101.26},{"price":10,"shares":964,"people":0,"house":964,"total":197.66},{"price":9,"shares":1053,"people":0,"house":1053,"total":292.43},{"price":8,"shares":1165,"people":0,"house":1165,"total":385.63},{"price":7,"shares":1307,"people":0,"house":1307,"total":477.12}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"David Lisnard","o":3,"mid":11.79,"bestBid":11,"bestAsk":12,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":12,"shares":180,"people":0,"house":180,"total":21.6},{"price":13,"shares":827,"people":0,"house":827,"total":129.11},{"price":14,"shares":776,"people":0,"house":776,"total":237.75},{"price":15,"shares":730,"people":0,"house":730,"total":347.25},{"price":16,"shares":691,"people":0,"house":691,"total":457.81},{"price":17,"shares":658,"people":0,"house":658,"total":569.67}],"bids":[{"price":11,"shares":710,"people":0,"house":710,"total":78.1},{"price":10,"shares":964,"people":0,"house":964,"total":174.5},{"price":9,"shares":1054,"people":0,"house":1054,"total":269.36},{"price":8,"shares":1165,"people":0,"house":1165,"total":362.56},{"price":7,"shares":1306,"people":0,"house":1306,"total":453.98},{"price":6,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":543.5}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"François Hollande","o":4,"mid":5.09,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":6,"shares":1585,"people":0,"house":1585,"total":95.1},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":199.54},{"price":8,"shares":1306,"people":0,"house":1306,"total":304.02},{"price":9,"shares":1165,"people":0,"house":1165,"total":408.87},{"price":10,"shares":1054,"people":0,"house":1054,"total":514.27},{"price":11,"shares":964,"people":0,"house":964,"total":620.31}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":8.05},{"price":4,"shares":2115,"people":0,"house":2115,"total":92.65},{"price":3,"shares":2698,"people":0,"house":2698,"total":173.59},{"price":2,"shares":3762,"people":0,"house":3762,"total":248.83},{"price":1,"shares":6366,"people":0,"house":6366,"total":312.49}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Gabriel Attal","o":5,"mid":2.07,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":3447,"people":0,"house":3447,"total":103.41},{"price":4,"shares":2697,"people":0,"house":2697,"total":211.29},{"price":5,"shares":2115,"people":0,"house":2115,"total":317.04},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":421.8},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":526.24},{"price":8,"shares":1306,"people":0,"house":1306,"total":630.72}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":316,"people":0,"house":316,"total":6.32},{"price":1,"shares":6366,"people":0,"house":6366,"total":69.98}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Raphaël Glucksmann","o":6,"mid":1.4,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":3311,"people":0,"house":3311,"total":66.22},{"price":3,"shares":3763,"people":0,"house":3763,"total":179.11},{"price":4,"shares":2698,"people":0,"house":2698,"total":287.03},{"price":5,"shares":2114,"people":0,"house":2114,"total":392.73},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":497.49},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":601.93}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":3055,"people":0,"house":3055,"total":30.55}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Bruno Retailleau","o":7,"mid":1.2,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":4672,"people":0,"house":4672,"total":93.44},{"price":3,"shares":3763,"people":0,"house":3763,"total":206.33},{"price":4,"shares":2698,"people":0,"house":2698,"total":314.25},{"price":5,"shares":2114,"people":0,"house":2114,"total":419.95},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":524.71},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":629.15}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":1694,"people":0,"house":1694,"total":16.94}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Sarah Knafo","o":8,"mid":1.01,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":6268,"people":0,"house":6268,"total":125.36},{"price":3,"shares":3763,"people":0,"house":3763,"total":238.25},{"price":4,"shares":2697,"people":0,"house":2697,"total":346.13},{"price":5,"shares":2115,"people":0,"house":2115,"total":451.88},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":556.64},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":661.08}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":98,"people":0,"house":98,"total":0.98}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Éric Zemmour","o":9,"mid":0.91,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":817,"people":0,"house":817,"total":8.17},{"price":2,"shares":6366,"people":0,"house":6366,"total":135.49},{"price":3,"shares":3762,"people":0,"house":3762,"total":248.35},{"price":4,"shares":2698,"people":0,"house":2698,"total":356.27},{"price":5,"shares":2115,"people":0,"house":2115,"total":462.02},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":566.78}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"mid":3.51,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":43.1,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":1219,"people":0,"house":1219,"total":48.76},{"price":5,"shares":2115,"people":0,"house":2115,"total":154.51},{"price":6,"shares":1746,"people":0,"house":1746,"total":259.27},{"price":7,"shares":1492,"people":0,"house":1492,"total":363.71},{"price":8,"shares":1306,"people":0,"house":1306,"total":468.19},{"price":9,"shares":1165,"people":0,"house":1165,"total":573.04}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":1478,"people":0,"house":1478,"total":44.34},{"price":2,"shares":3763,"people":0,"house":3763,"total":119.6},{"price":1,"shares":6366,"people":0,"house":6366,"total":183.26}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Marine Le Pen","o":0,"top":[{"key":"resres426xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"orru_miko","shares":79,"cost":34.94,"res":true},{"key":"resres257xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"lantern71","shares":58,"cost":26,"res":true},{"key":"resres603xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"Compass_Run","shares":45,"cost":19.99,"res":true},{"key":"resres183xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"StaticKettleFox","shares":38,"cost":16.92,"res":true},{"key":"resres229xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"spark2","shares":38,"cost":16.96,"res":true},{"key":"resres568xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"gliarloop","shares":29,"cost":12.97,"res":true}],"count":6},{"outcome":"Édouard Philippe","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"David Lisnard","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"François Hollande","o":4,"top":[{"key":"resres113xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","name":"novarelay","shares":408,"cost":21.96,"res":true}],"count":1},{"outcome":"Gabriel Attal","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Raphaël Glucksmann","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Bruno Retailleau","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Sarah Knafo","o":8,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Éric Zemmour","o":9,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8844,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1156,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8844,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":727,"trades":19,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[25.91756,-11591.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6712,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2454,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6712,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":632,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2304.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.4961,"ref":0.4889},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3554,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1068,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0179,"ref":0.0188},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0055,"ref":0.0059},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.005,"ref":0.0054},{"name":"Other","p":0.0134,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4961,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":244,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4889,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5411.562251,-8102.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0597,"ref":0.0275},{"name":"No","p":0.9403,"ref":0.9725}],"chance":0.0597,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":338,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0275,"b":6055,"state":[-16769.346856,-77.621885],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8133,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1867,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8133,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":250,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[-355.940693,-4678.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":293,"slug":"quebec-general-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/quebec-general-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Quebec General Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"PQ","p":0.9418,"ref":0.987},{"name":"PLQ","p":0.0505,"ref":0.0105},{"name":"PCQ","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Other","p":0.0039,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.9418,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":113,"trades":5,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner","ref":0.987,"b":4096,"state":[-132.535972,-12119.590312,-22618.134533,-22618.134533],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237205,"closes":1791259140,"closesText":"Oct 5, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 844","closesWorldDay":844,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}