{"id":1054,"slug":"next-gemini-pro-model-released-on","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-gemini-pro-model-released-on","q":"Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No release by October 31","p":0.6698,"ref":0.6862},{"name":"October 6","p":0.0836,"ref":0.0594},{"name":"October 20","p":0.0346,"ref":0.0411},{"name":"October 25","p":0.0294,"ref":0.0288},{"name":"October 10","p":0.0252,"ref":0.0249},{"name":"October 23","p":0.0252,"ref":0.0258},{"name":"October 13","p":0.0222,"ref":0.0227},{"name":"October 17","p":0.009,"ref":0.0092},{"name":"October 8","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0083},{"name":"October 27","p":0.0085,"ref":0.0087},{"name":"Other","p":0.084,"ref":0.0848}],"chance":0.6698,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260922131618444","ref":0.6862,"b":2888.75,"state":[-1157.76262,-7168.431656,-9721.120382,-10184.310213,-10636.599087,-10636.599087,-11001.430086,-13620.721186,-13761.663773,-13761.663773,-7153.730606],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791292061,"closes":1793491140,"closesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","closesWorldDay":1464,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.","rules":"This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:07 AM ET · World Day 854","resolves":1793491140,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791292020,"p":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084],"r":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084]},{"at":1791293040,"p":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084],"r":[0.6791,0.0657,0.0433,0.0285,0.0255,0.0255,0.0225,0.0091,0.0087,0.0087,0.0835]},{"at":1791294000,"p":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084],"r":[0.7402,0.0716,0.0472,0.0311,0.0278,0.0278,0.0245,0.0099,0.0095,0.0095,0.001]},{"at":1791294960,"p":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084],"r":[0.6862,0.0594,0.0411,0.0288,0.0249,0.0258,0.0227,0.0092,0.0083,0.0087,0.0848]},{"at":1791295624,"p":[0.6698,0.0836,0.0346,0.0294,0.0252,0.0252,0.0222,0.009,0.0085,0.0085,0.084],"r":[0.6862,0.0594,0.0411,0.0288,0.0249,0.0258,0.0227,0.0092,0.0083,0.0087,0.0848]}],"book":[{"outcome":"No release by October 31","o":0,"mid":66.98,"bestBid":66,"bestAsk":67,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":67,"shares":3,"people":0,"house":3,"total":2.01},{"price":68,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":91.09},{"price":69,"shares":134,"people":0,"house":134,"total":183.55},{"price":70,"shares":137,"people":0,"house":137,"total":279.45},{"price":71,"shares":138,"people":0,"house":138,"total":377.43},{"price":72,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":479.67}],"bids":[{"price":66,"shares":127,"people":0,"house":127,"total":83.82},{"price":65,"shares":128,"people":0,"house":128,"total":167.02},{"price":64,"shares":126,"people":0,"house":126,"total":247.66},{"price":63,"shares":125,"people":0,"house":125,"total":326.41},{"price":62,"shares":123,"people":0,"house":123,"total":402.67},{"price":61,"shares":122,"people":0,"house":122,"total":477.09}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 6","o":1,"mid":8.36,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":9,"shares":233,"people":0,"house":233,"total":20.97},{"price":10,"shares":336,"people":0,"house":336,"total":54.57},{"price":11,"shares":308,"people":0,"house":308,"total":88.45},{"price":12,"shares":284,"people":0,"house":284,"total":122.53},{"price":13,"shares":264,"people":0,"house":264,"total":156.85},{"price":14,"shares":247,"people":0,"house":247,"total":191.43}],"bids":[{"price":8,"shares":139,"people":0,"house":139,"total":11.12},{"price":7,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":40.31},{"price":6,"shares":476,"people":0,"house":476,"total":68.87},{"price":5,"shares":558,"people":0,"house":558,"total":96.77},{"price":4,"shares":674,"people":0,"house":674,"total":123.73},{"price":3,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":149.56}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 20","o":2,"mid":3.46,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":439,"people":0,"house":439,"total":17.56},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":51.31},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":84.73},{"price":7,"shares":476,"people":0,"house":476,"total":118.05},{"price":8,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":151.41},{"price":9,"shares":372,"people":0,"house":372,"total":184.89}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":422,"people":0,"house":422,"total":12.66},{"price":2,"shares":1201,"people":0,"house":1201,"total":36.68},{"price":1,"shares":2032,"people":0,"house":2032,"total":57}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 25","o":3,"mid":2.94,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":1.68},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":36.12},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":69.87},{"price":6,"shares":558,"people":0,"house":558,"total":103.35},{"price":7,"shares":476,"people":0,"house":476,"total":136.67},{"price":8,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":170.03}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":1144,"people":0,"house":1144,"total":22.88},{"price":1,"shares":2032,"people":0,"house":2032,"total":43.2}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 10","o":4,"mid":2.52,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":521,"people":0,"house":521,"total":15.63},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":50.07},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":83.82},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":117.24},{"price":7,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":150.63},{"price":8,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":183.99}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":680,"people":0,"house":680,"total":13.6},{"price":1,"shares":2031,"people":0,"house":2031,"total":33.91}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 23","o":5,"mid":2.52,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":521,"people":0,"house":521,"total":15.63},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":50.07},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":83.82},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":117.24},{"price":7,"shares":477,"people":0,"house":477,"total":150.63},{"price":8,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":183.99}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":680,"people":0,"house":680,"total":13.6},{"price":1,"shares":2031,"people":0,"house":2031,"total":33.91}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 13","o":6,"mid":2.22,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":26.85},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":61.29},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":95.04},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":128.46},{"price":7,"shares":476,"people":0,"house":476,"total":161.78},{"price":8,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":195.14}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":306,"people":0,"house":306,"total":6.12},{"price":1,"shares":2032,"people":0,"house":2032,"total":26.44}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 17","o":7,"mid":0.9,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":321,"people":0,"house":321,"total":3.21},{"price":2,"shares":2031,"people":0,"house":2031,"total":43.83},{"price":3,"shares":1201,"people":0,"house":1201,"total":79.86},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":114.3},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":148.05},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":181.47}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 8","o":8,"mid":0.85,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":463,"people":0,"house":463,"total":4.63},{"price":2,"shares":2031,"people":0,"house":2031,"total":45.25},{"price":3,"shares":1201,"people":0,"house":1201,"total":81.28},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":115.72},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":149.47},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":182.89}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"October 27","o":9,"mid":0.85,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":463,"people":0,"house":463,"total":4.63},{"price":2,"shares":2031,"people":0,"house":2031,"total":45.25},{"price":3,"shares":1201,"people":0,"house":1201,"total":81.28},{"price":4,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":115.72},{"price":5,"shares":675,"people":0,"house":675,"total":149.47},{"price":6,"shares":557,"people":0,"house":557,"total":182.89}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"mid":8.4,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":9,"shares":217,"people":0,"house":217,"total":19.53},{"price":10,"shares":336,"people":0,"house":336,"total":53.13},{"price":11,"shares":308,"people":0,"house":308,"total":87.01},{"price":12,"shares":284,"people":0,"house":284,"total":121.09},{"price":13,"shares":264,"people":0,"house":264,"total":155.41},{"price":14,"shares":247,"people":0,"house":247,"total":189.99}],"bids":[{"price":8,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":12.4},{"price":7,"shares":417,"people":0,"house":417,"total":41.59},{"price":6,"shares":476,"people":0,"house":476,"total":70.15},{"price":5,"shares":558,"people":0,"house":558,"total":98.05},{"price":4,"shares":674,"people":0,"house":674,"total":125.01},{"price":3,"shares":861,"people":0,"house":861,"total":150.84}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"No release by October 31","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 6","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 20","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 25","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 10","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 23","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 13","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 17","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 8","o":8,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"October 27","o":9,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":72,"slug":"gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/gemini-4-0-released-by-october-31-2026","q":"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8435,"ref":0.93},{"name":"No","p":0.1565,"ref":0.07}],"chance":0.8435,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3232,"trades":73,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","ref":0.93,"b":2754,"state":[2763.848342,-1874.969143],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":49,"slug":"will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-indiana-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-december-31-2028","q":"Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2235,"ref":0.145},{"name":"No","p":0.7765,"ref":0.855}],"chance":0.2235,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1572,"trades":31,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/indiana-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.145,"b":3495,"state":[-3664.92027,688.494934],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1861937940,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 20,477","closesWorldDay":20477,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":257,"slug":"which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","q":"Which company has the best AI model end of October?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Google","p":0.6529,"ref":0.6662},{"name":"Anthropic","p":0.3191,"ref":0.3172},{"name":"OpenAI","p":0.0128,"ref":0.0116},{"name":"Meta","p":0.0059,"ref":0.004},{"name":"Other","p":0.0093,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6529,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-october","ref":0.6662,"b":5530,"state":[-2357.434548,-6316.703625,-24117.086936,-28392.827018,-25851.613237],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236005,"closes":1793462400,"closesText":"Oct 31, 12 PM ET · World Day 1,456","closesWorldDay":1456,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":982,"slug":"will-openai-announce-another-millennium-prize-solution-by-december-31-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-openai-announce-another-millennium-prize-solution-by-december-31-2027","q":"Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","openai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.635,"ref":0.635},{"name":"No","p":0.365,"ref":0.365}],"chance":0.635,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by","ref":0.635,"b":3024,"state":[-1373.289967,-3047.762366],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791286541,"closes":1830315540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 11,693","closesWorldDay":11693,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":670,"slug":"will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-4-0t-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-4-0t-by-december-31","q":"Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.074,"ref":0.067},{"name":"No","p":0.926,"ref":0.933}],"chance":0.074,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31","ref":0.067,"b":3895,"state":[-10141.373274,-299.451668],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1799125140,"closesText":"Jan 4, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 3,029","closesWorldDay":3029,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":669,"slug":"will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-oklahoma-enact-a-data-center-moratorium-by-june-30-2027","q":"Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.115,"ref":0.115},{"name":"No","p":0.885,"ref":0.885}],"chance":0.115,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/oklahoma-enacts-data-center-moratorium-by-20260929","ref":0.115,"b":2998,"state":[-6484.143806,-366.258567],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791260007,"closes":1814414340,"closesText":"Jun 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 7,276","closesWorldDay":7276,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}