{"id":1325,"slug":"next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-october-31-2026-copy","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-by-october-31-2026-copy","q":"Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.215,"ref":0.19},{"name":"No","p":0.785,"ref":0.81}],"chance":0.215,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt","ref":0.19,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2805,"state":[-4311.613889,-679.010729],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791317802,"closes":1793491140,"closesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","closesWorldDay":1464,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?","rules":"On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.\n\nA diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.\n\nA direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the followin","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 4:16 PM ET · World Day 861","resolves":1793491140,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,464","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791317760,"p":[0.215,0.785],"r":[0.215,0.785]},{"at":1791320460,"p":[0.215,0.785],"r":[0.195,0.805]},{"at":1791321360,"p":[0.215,0.785],"r":[0.19,0.81]},{"at":1791321679,"p":[0.215,0.785],"r":[0.19,0.81]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":21.5,"bestBid":21,"bestAsk":22,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":22,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":18.04},{"price":23,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":55.07},{"price":24,"shares":156,"people":0,"house":156,"total":92.51},{"price":25,"shares":152,"people":0,"house":152,"total":130.51},{"price":26,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":168.99},{"price":27,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":207.87}],"bids":[{"price":21,"shares":84,"people":0,"house":84,"total":17.64},{"price":20,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":52.04},{"price":19,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":86.05},{"price":18,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":119.53},{"price":17,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":152.51},{"price":16,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":185.15}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":78.5,"bestBid":78,"bestAsk":79,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":79,"shares":84,"people":0,"house":84,"total":66.36},{"price":80,"shares":172,"people":0,"house":172,"total":203.96},{"price":81,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":348.95},{"price":82,"shares":186,"people":0,"house":186,"total":501.47},{"price":83,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":662.49},{"price":84,"shares":204,"people":0,"house":204,"total":833.85}],"bids":[{"price":78,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":63.96},{"price":77,"shares":161,"people":0,"house":161,"total":187.93},{"price":76,"shares":156,"people":0,"house":156,"total":306.49},{"price":75,"shares":152,"people":0,"house":152,"total":420.49},{"price":74,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":530.01},{"price":73,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":635.13}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1944,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.8056,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.1944,"change24":0.0481,"change7d":null,"vol":3915,"trades":91,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[-2693.546621,3042.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.7868,"ref":0.875},{"name":"No","p":0.2132,"ref":0.125}],"chance":0.7868,"change24":-0.0748,"change7d":null,"vol":4429,"trades":85,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.875,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2983,"state":[3628.675856,-265.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1302,"ref":0.049},{"name":"No","p":0.8698,"ref":0.951}],"chance":0.1302,"change24":0.0817,"change7d":null,"vol":2297,"trades":101,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.049,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6064,"state":[-10721.825141,793.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":22,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2214,"ref":0.225},{"name":"No","p":0.7786,"ref":0.775}],"chance":0.2214,"change24":0.0028,"change7d":null,"vol":936,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-31-2026-20260727171711632-895-372-622-413-171-454-592-696","ref":0.225,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4819,"state":[-6328.368032,-269.542853],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0861,"ref":0.0235},{"name":"No","p":0.9139,"ref":0.9765}],"chance":0.0861,"change24":0.0521,"change7d":null,"vol":1397,"trades":78,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.0235,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6328,"state":[-14744.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1225,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8775,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1225,"change24":0.0628,"change7d":null,"vol":678,"trades":47,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6143,"state":[-12442.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}