{"id":406,"slug":"perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-october-31","q":"Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1325,"ref":0.165},{"name":"No","p":0.8675,"ref":0.835}],"chance":0.1325,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916","ref":0.165,"b":2120,"state":[-4284.885983,-301.336306],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791240805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.\n\n“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.\n\nTemporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.\n\nAn announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.\n\nIf control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.\n\nIf control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 6:53 PM ET · World Day 839","resolves":1793505540,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791240780,"p":[0.1325,0.8675],"r":[0.1325,0.8675]},{"at":1791243720,"p":[0.1325,0.8675],"r":[0.166,0.834]},{"at":1791249496,"p":[0.1325,0.8675],"r":[0.165,0.835]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":13.25,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":14,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":18.9},{"price":15,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":44.55},{"price":16,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":70.47},{"price":17,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":96.65},{"price":18,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":123.11},{"price":19,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":149.9}],"bids":[{"price":13,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":5.98},{"price":12,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":29.26},{"price":11,"shares":209,"people":0,"house":209,"total":52.25},{"price":10,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":74.85},{"price":9,"shares":246,"people":0,"house":246,"total":96.99},{"price":8,"shares":273,"people":0,"house":273,"total":118.83}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":86.75,"bestBid":86,"bestAsk":87,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":87,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":40.02},{"price":88,"shares":194,"people":0,"house":194,"total":210.74},{"price":89,"shares":209,"people":0,"house":209,"total":396.75},{"price":90,"shares":226,"people":0,"house":226,"total":600.15},{"price":91,"shares":246,"people":0,"house":246,"total":824.01},{"price":92,"shares":273,"people":0,"house":273,"total":1075.17}],"bids":[{"price":86,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":116.1},{"price":85,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":261.45},{"price":84,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":397.53},{"price":83,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":525.35},{"price":82,"shares":147,"people":0,"house":147,"total":645.89},{"price":81,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":760.1}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which 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2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0547,"ref":0.0275},{"name":"No","p":0.9453,"ref":0.9725}],"chance":0.0547,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1200,"trades":22,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0275,"b":6055,"state":[-16476.346856,778.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}