{"id":83,"slug":"pink-tide-will-leftists-still-govern-a-majority-of-latin-american-countries-at","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/pink-tide-will-leftists-still-govern-a-majority-of-latin-american-countries-at","q":"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0497,"ref":0.0497},{"name":"No","p":0.9503,"ref":0.9503}],"chance":0.0497,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/cash/pink-tide-will-leftists-still-gover","ref":0.0497,"b":1327,"state":[-3982.434373,-67.693691],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231925,"closes":1798790340,"closesText":"Jan 1, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 2,936","closesWorldDay":2936,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20). Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election. Will the pink tide recede?\n\nA country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president.\n\nA majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1).\n\nLatin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.\n\nFor convenience, below are lists of Latin American countries with their approximate next election date, grouped by political alignment and democratic competitiveness.\n\nLeftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nCuba: early 2023 (one-party state)\n\nVenezuela: mid 2025 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nNicaragua: Nov 2026 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nLeftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nMexico: Jul 2024\n\nHonduras: Nov 2025\n\nPanama: May 2024\n\nDominican Republic: May or Jul 2024\n\nColombia: Jun 2026 2025\n\nPeru: Apr-Jun 2026\n\nBolivia: Oct 2025\n\nBrazil: Oct 2026\n\nChile: Nov 2025\n\nArgentina: Oct 2023\n\nNon-leftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nGuatemala: Jun 2023\n\nEl Salvador: Feb 2024\n\nCosta Rica: Feb-Apr 2026\n\nEcuador: Feb-Apr\n\nParaguay: Apr 2023\n\nUruguay: Oct 2024\n\nNon-leftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nHaiti: unknown (elections delayed since 2021)\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:25 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1799049540,"resolvesText":"Jan 4, 2:59 AM ET · World Day 3,008","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231900,"p":[0.0497,0.9503],"r":[0.0497,0.9503]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.0497,0.9503],"r":[0.0497,0.9503]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.0497,0.9503],"r":[0.0497,0.9503]},{"at":1791258413,"p":[0.0497,0.9503],"r":[0.0497,0.9503]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":4.97,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":7,"people":0,"house":7,"total":0.35},{"price":6,"shares":256,"people":0,"house":256,"total":15.71},{"price":7,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":31.04},{"price":8,"shares":192,"people":0,"house":192,"total":46.4},{"price":9,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":61.79},{"price":10,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":77.19}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":12.12},{"price":3,"shares":395,"people":0,"house":395,"total":23.97},{"price":2,"shares":552,"people":0,"house":552,"total":35.01},{"price":1,"shares":933,"people":0,"house":933,"total":44.34}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":95.03,"bestBid":95,"bestAsk":96,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":96,"shares":303,"people":0,"house":303,"total":290.88},{"price":97,"shares":395,"people":0,"house":395,"total":674.03},{"price":98,"shares":552,"people":0,"house":552,"total":1214.99},{"price":99,"shares":933,"people":0,"house":933,"total":2138.66}],"bids":[{"price":95,"shares":7,"people":0,"house":7,"total":6.65},{"price":94,"shares":256,"people":0,"house":256,"total":247.29},{"price":93,"shares":219,"people":0,"house":219,"total":450.96},{"price":92,"shares":192,"people":0,"house":192,"total":627.6},{"price":91,"shares":171,"people":0,"house":171,"total":783.21},{"price":90,"shares":154,"people":0,"house":154,"total":921.81}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8657,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1343,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8657,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1530,"trades":45,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[706.91756,-9931.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6719,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2448,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0692,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6719,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":647,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2281.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8081,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1919,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8081,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1156,"trades":22,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[531.059307,-3692.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":279,"slug":"south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"South Carolina Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Darline Graham Nordone (R)","p":0.82,"ref":0.845},{"name":"Annie Andrews (D)","p":0.18,"ref":0.155}],"chance":0.82,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":170,"trades":4,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner","ref":0.845,"b":3725,"state":[-568.535442,-6217.055224],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236845,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Johnson","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"Other","p":0.1741,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.2227,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","ref":0.2658,"b":10000,"state":[-15019.175687,-18704.517378,-21710.827846,-23244.438868,-24415.365531,-30011.52341,-34120.670539,-35156.077328,-39675.928566,-39675.928566,-17483.893725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":112,"slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","q":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1952,"ref":0.2267},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.1697,"ref":0.197},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1615,"ref":0.1888},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0718,"ref":0.089},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.0647,"ref":0.0821},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0549,"ref":0.0697},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0332,"ref":0.0421},{"name":"James Talarico","p":0.0321,"ref":0.04},{"name":"Mark Kelly","p":0.0277,"ref":0.0352},{"name":"Wes Moore","p":0.0223,"ref":0.0283},{"name":"Other","p":0.1669,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.1952,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","ref":0.2267,"b":10000,"state":[-16336.548361,-17739.740368,-18232.450858,-26341.75302,-27378.537315,-29018.567078,-34061.033604,-34394.397807,-35851.515919,-38034.051579,-17901.29477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}