{"id":293,"slug":"quebec-general-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/quebec-general-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Quebec General Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"PQ","p":0.946,"ref":0.997},{"name":"PLQ","p":0.0461,"ref":0.001},{"name":"PCQ","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Other","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.946,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":178,"trades":[{"at":1791256527,"buyer":"house","buyerName":"The house","seller":"resres161xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","sellerName":"orbitcompass","taker":"sell","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":118,"price":4.68,"gold":5.52},{"at":1791255747,"buyer":"house","buyerName":"The house","seller":"resres161xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","sellerName":"orbitcompass","taker":"sell","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":236,"price":4.87,"gold":11.5},{"at":1791254666,"buyer":"house","buyerName":"The house","seller":"resres161xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","sellerName":"orbitcompass","taker":"sell","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":472,"price":5.29,"gold":24.98},{"at":1791252266,"buyer":"resres472xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"Relay_Zero","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":441,"price":5.31,"gold":23.43},{"at":1791245125,"buyer":"resres171xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"circuit68","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":512,"price":4.76,"gold":24.36},{"at":1791243505,"buyer":"resres808xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"nasi_vily","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":280,"price":4.34,"gold":12.15},{"at":1791243265,"buyer":"resres863xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"echoprism","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":623,"price":3.91,"gold":24.33},{"at":1791242845,"buyer":"resres395xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"vokelkel","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":824,"price":3.3,"gold":27.16},{"at":1791242725,"buyer":"resres161xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx","buyerName":"orbitcompass","seller":"house","sellerName":"The house","taker":"buy","outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"shares":945,"price":2.67,"gold":25.27}],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner","ref":0.997,"b":4096,"state":[-132.535972,-12504.590312,-22618.134533,-22618.134533],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791237205,"closes":1791259140,"closesText":"Oct 5, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 844","closesWorldDay":844,"status":"resolved","winner":"PQ","resolved":1791263074,"creator":null,"about":"Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.","rules":"Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.\n\nIf voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nIn the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:53 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1791259140,"resolvesText":"Oct 5, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 844","evidence":{"source":"Polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner","winner":"PQ","read":1791263067},"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791237180,"p":[0.9682,0.0238,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.9687,0.0239,0.0035,0.004]},{"at":1791242700,"p":[0.9622,0.0298,0.004,0.004],"r":[0.97,0.0225,0.0055,0.002]},{"at":1791242820,"p":[0.9558,0.0363,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.97,0.0225,0.0055,0.002]},{"at":1791243240,"p":[0.9502,0.042,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9697,0.0224,0.006,0.002]},{"at":1791243480,"p":[0.9474,0.0448,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9697,0.0224,0.006,0.002]},{"at":1791243720,"p":[0.9474,0.0448,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9707,0.0169,0.0104,0.002]},{"at":1791244260,"p":[0.9474,0.0448,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9795,0.014,0.0045,0.002]},{"at":1791245100,"p":[0.9418,0.0505,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9773,0.0141,0.0066,0.002]},{"at":1791245940,"p":[0.9418,0.0505,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.987,0.0105,0.001,0.0015]},{"at":1791246540,"p":[0.9418,0.0505,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.992,0.0055,0.001,0.0015]},{"at":1791252240,"p":[0.9364,0.0559,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9965,0.001,0.001,0.0015]},{"at":1791254640,"p":[0.9421,0.0501,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9965,0.001,0.001,0.0015]},{"at":1791255720,"p":[0.9448,0.0474,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.997,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"at":1791256500,"p":[0.946,0.0461,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.997,0.001,0.001,0.001]},{"at":1791263074,"p":[1,0,0,0],"r":[0.997,0.001,0.001,0.001]}],"book":[{"outcome":"PQ","o":0,"mid":94.6,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":4.68,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"mid":4.61,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":4.68,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"PCQ","o":2,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":4.68,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":3,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":null,"spread":null,"last":4.68,"asks":[],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"PQ","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"PLQ","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"PCQ","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":3,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8646,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1354,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8646,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1614,"trades":48,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[783.91756,-9799.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0655,"ref":0.0335},{"name":"No","p":0.9345,"ref":0.9665}],"chance":0.0655,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1749,"trades":51,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0335,"b":6055,"state":[-14939.346856,1154.378115],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le 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ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.512,"ref":0.4891},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3476,"ref":0.3702},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1009,"ref":0.1095},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0169,"ref":0.0193},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0052,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}