{"id":172,"slug":"republicans-have-a-house-majority-after-2026-midterms","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/republicans-have-a-house-majority-after-2026-midterms","q":"Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.06,"ref":0.0599},{"name":"No","p":0.94,"ref":0.9401}],"chance":0.06,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ryanmccomb/republicans-have-house-majority-aft","ref":0.0599,"b":2444,"state":[-6875.975792,-151.223487],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233365,"closes":1793836740,"closesText":"Nov 4, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 1,560","closesWorldDay":1560,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to \"No\" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (ballotpedia.org)\n\nBackground\n\nThe 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (ballotpedia.org)\n\n⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ \n\nUpdate 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator assumes all elected Representatives will be sworn in promptly after the election. If circumstances arise where Representatives are not sworn in (e.g., refusal to seat elected members), the creator will address those circumstances individually at the time.\n\nUpdate 2026-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is soliciting feedback on when to resolve this market. The options under consideration are:\n\nDecision desks: Resolve once 3 major decision desks (e.g. DDHQ, VoteHub, AP, Edison Research) have called House control (creator's preferred option)\n\nSworn in: Resolve once enough members are sworn in to confirm majority\n\nCertification: Resolve once elections are certified for enough seats to determine majority\n\nNo final decision has been made yet; the creator is seeking trader input.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:49 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1794095940,"resolvesText":"Nov 7, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 1,632","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791233340,"p":[0.06,0.94],"r":[0.06,0.94]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.06,0.94],"r":[0.0599,0.9401]},{"at":1791252685,"p":[0.06,0.94],"r":[0.0599,0.9401]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":6,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":7,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":403,"people":0,"house":403,"total":28.21},{"price":8,"shares":353,"people":0,"house":353,"total":56.45},{"price":9,"shares":314,"people":0,"house":314,"total":84.71},{"price":10,"shares":285,"people":0,"house":285,"total":113.21},{"price":11,"shares":260,"people":0,"house":260,"total":141.81},{"price":12,"shares":240,"people":0,"house":240,"total":170.61}],"bids":[{"price":5,"shares":471,"people":0,"house":471,"total":23.55},{"price":4,"shares":571,"people":0,"house":571,"total":46.39},{"price":3,"shares":729,"people":0,"house":729,"total":68.26},{"price":2,"shares":1016,"people":0,"house":1016,"total":88.58},{"price":1,"shares":1719,"people":0,"house":1719,"total":105.77}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":94,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":95,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":95,"shares":471,"people":0,"house":471,"total":447.45},{"price":96,"shares":571,"people":0,"house":571,"total":995.61},{"price":97,"shares":729,"people":0,"house":729,"total":1702.74},{"price":98,"shares":1016,"people":0,"house":1016,"total":2698.42},{"price":99,"shares":1719,"people":0,"house":1719,"total":4400.23}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":403,"people":0,"house":403,"total":374.79},{"price":92,"shares":353,"people":0,"house":353,"total":699.55},{"price":91,"shares":314,"people":0,"house":314,"total":985.29},{"price":90,"shares":285,"people":0,"house":285,"total":1241.79},{"price":89,"shares":260,"people":0,"house":260,"total":1473.19},{"price":88,"shares":240,"people":0,"house":240,"total":1684.39}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.878,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.122,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.878,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":925,"trades":27,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[182.91756,-11083.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6712,"ref":0.6505},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2454,"ref":0.2632},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6712,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":632,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6505,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2304.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8034,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1966,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8034,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":898,"trades":16,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[255.059307,-3879.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Moore","p":0.0223,"ref":0.0231},{"name":"Other","p":0.1669,"ref":0.1309}],"chance":0.1952,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","ref":0.2025,"b":10000,"state":[-16336.548361,-17739.740368,-18232.450858,-26341.75302,-27378.537315,-29018.567078,-34061.033604,-34394.397807,-35851.515919,-38034.051579,-17901.29477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}