{"id":1162,"slug":"rfc-15-2-method-circuit-breaker-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-15-2-method-circuit-breaker-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 15, fight 2: Circuit Breaker vs Gearbox Gus, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.1827,"ref":0.2019},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.1635,"ref":0.3365},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.3173,"ref":0.2596},{"name":"Decision","p":0.3365,"ref":0.2019}],"chance":0.1827,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/72","ref":0.2019,"b":700,"state":[-1189.966344,-1267.824289,-803.518336,-762.329986],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791301722,"closes":1791309600,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2 PM ET · World Day 858","closesWorldDay":858,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"RFC 15, fight 2 at the RFC Stadium, Las Vegas. Circuit Breaker (technician) meets Gearbox Gus (grinder).","rules":"Resolves to how the fight ends (the head coming off is a KO; a dead power core; a robot with no limb left to strike with or stand on is a TKO; else the judges score it) in the RFC's computed fight between Circuit Breaker and Gearbox Gus (RFC 15, fight 2), at the RFC Stadium in Las Vegas. Every fight is a seeded calculation of parts, joints, reach, forces and damage, computed at the opening bell and played out over 10 minutes. Trading closes at the opening bell; it settles when the fight ends. Played with game gold.","resolutionSource":"The RFC's computed result (https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/72)","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 11:48 AM ET · World Day 856","resolves":1791310200,"resolvesText":"Oct 6, 2:10 PM ET · World Day 859","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791301680,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365]},{"at":1791303000,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.2019,0.2788,0.3173,0.2019]},{"at":1791303240,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.2404,0.3173,0.2788,0.1635]},{"at":1791305640,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.2019,0.3173,0.2788,0.2019]},{"at":1791306960,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.2019,0.3365,0.2596,0.2019]},{"at":1791307611,"p":[0.1827,0.1635,0.3173,0.3365],"r":[0.2019,0.3365,0.2596,0.2019]}],"book":[{"outcome":"KO (head off)","o":0,"mid":18.27,"bestBid":18,"bestAsk":19,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":19,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":6.46},{"price":20,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":15.26},{"price":21,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":24.29},{"price":22,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":33.53},{"price":23,"shares":40,"people":0,"house":40,"total":42.73},{"price":24,"shares":39,"people":0,"house":39,"total":52.09}],"bids":[{"price":18,"shares":13,"people":0,"house":13,"total":2.34},{"price":17,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":10.5},{"price":16,"shares":51,"people":0,"house":51,"total":18.66},{"price":15,"shares":53,"people":0,"house":53,"total":26.61},{"price":14,"shares":57,"people":0,"house":57,"total":34.59},{"price":13,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":42.39}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Power core failure","o":1,"mid":16.35,"bestBid":16,"bestAsk":17,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":17,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":5.61},{"price":18,"shares":48,"people":0,"house":48,"total":14.25},{"price":19,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":23.18},{"price":20,"shares":44,"people":0,"house":44,"total":31.98},{"price":21,"shares":43,"people":0,"house":43,"total":41.01},{"price":22,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":50.25}],"bids":[{"price":16,"shares":18,"people":0,"house":18,"total":2.88},{"price":15,"shares":53,"people":0,"house":53,"total":10.83},{"price":14,"shares":57,"people":0,"house":57,"total":18.81},{"price":13,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":26.61},{"price":12,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":34.29},{"price":11,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":41.88}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"TKO (dismantled)","o":2,"mid":31.73,"bestBid":31,"bestAsk":32,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":32,"shares":9,"people":0,"house":9,"total":2.88},{"price":33,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":13.44},{"price":34,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":23.98},{"price":35,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":34.83},{"price":36,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":45.99},{"price":37,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":57.09}],"bids":[{"price":31,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":7.44},{"price":30,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":17.34},{"price":29,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":26.91},{"price":28,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":36.71},{"price":27,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":46.16},{"price":26,"shares":36,"people":0,"house":36,"total":55.52}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Decision","o":3,"mid":33.65,"bestBid":33,"bestAsk":34,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":34,"shares":11,"people":0,"house":11,"total":3.74},{"price":35,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":14.59},{"price":36,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":25.39},{"price":37,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":36.86},{"price":38,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":47.88},{"price":39,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":59.58}],"bids":[{"price":33,"shares":21,"people":0,"house":21,"total":6.93},{"price":32,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":17.17},{"price":31,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":27.09},{"price":30,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":36.99},{"price":29,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":46.85},{"price":28,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":56.37}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"KO (head off)","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Power core failure","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"TKO (dismantled)","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Decision","o":3,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1196,"slug":"rfc-16-1-ml-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-1-ml-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 16, fight 1: Gearbox Gus vs Big Bertha 9000, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gearbox Gus","p":0.2843,"ref":0.3431},{"name":"Big Bertha 9000","p":0.7157,"ref":0.6569}],"chance":0.2843,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76","ref":0.3431,"b":700,"state":[-880.373888,-234.15936],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791312480,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1197,"slug":"rfc-16-1-method-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-1-method-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 16, fight 1: Gearbox Gus vs Big Bertha 9000, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.5865,"ref":0.5096},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.1058,"ref":0.125},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.2404,"ref":0.2596},{"name":"Decision","p":0.0673,"ref":0.1058}],"chance":0.5865,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76","ref":0.5096,"b":700,"state":[-373.461924,-1572.546938,-997.860552,-1888.936525],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791312480,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1198,"slug":"rfc-16-1-round-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-1-round-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 16, fight 1: Gearbox Gus vs Big Bertha 9000, which round does it end in?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Round 1","p":0.4519,"ref":0.4904},{"name":"Round 2","p":0.3365,"ref":0.2212},{"name":"Round 3","p":0.1442,"ref":0.1827},{"name":"Goes the distance","p":0.0673,"ref":0.1058}],"chance":0.4519,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76","ref":0.4904,"b":700,"state":[-555.970308,-762.329986,-1355.438489,-1888.936525],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791312480,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1199,"slug":"rfc-16-1-first-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-1-first-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 16, fight 1: Gearbox Gus vs Big Bertha 9000, which part comes off first?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Jaw","p":0.0472,"ref":0.0472},{"name":"Head","p":0.1038,"ref":0.1038},{"name":"An arm part","p":0.4811,"ref":0.4434},{"name":"A leg part","p":0.1981,"ref":0.2547},{"name":"Another part","p":0.1226,"ref":0.1038},{"name":"Nothing comes off","p":0.0472,"ref":0.0472}],"chance":0.0472,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76","ref":0.0472,"b":700,"state":[-2137.800827,-1585.880675,-512.129423,-1133.241659,-1468.942816,-2137.800827],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791312480,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1200,"slug":"rfc-16-2-ml-circuit-breaker-vs-slag-heap-sam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-2-ml-circuit-breaker-vs-slag-heap-sam","q":"RFC 16, fight 2: Circuit Breaker vs Slag Heap Sam, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Circuit Breaker","p":0.6961,"ref":0.7157},{"name":"Slag Heap Sam","p":0.3039,"ref":0.2843}],"chance":0.6961,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/77","ref":0.7157,"b":700,"state":[-253.605055,-833.689926],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791313200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1201,"slug":"rfc-16-2-method-circuit-breaker-vs-slag-heap-sam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-2-method-circuit-breaker-vs-slag-heap-sam","q":"RFC 16, fight 2: Circuit Breaker vs Slag Heap Sam, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.2788,"ref":0.2404},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.0096,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.3365,"ref":0.375},{"name":"Decision","p":0.375,"ref":0.375}],"chance":0.2788,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/77","ref":0.2404,"b":700,"state":[-893.966548,-3251.073629,-762.329986,-686.580477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791313200,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}