{"id":1198,"slug":"rfc-16-1-round-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-16-1-round-gearbox-gus-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 16, fight 1: Gearbox Gus vs Big Bertha 9000, which round does it end in?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Round 1","p":0.4519,"ref":0.4904},{"name":"Round 2","p":0.3365,"ref":0.2404},{"name":"Round 3","p":0.1442,"ref":0.1635},{"name":"Goes the distance","p":0.0673,"ref":0.1058}],"chance":0.4519,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76","ref":0.4904,"b":700,"state":[-555.970308,-762.329986,-1355.438489,-1888.936525],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791305322,"closes":1791312480,"closesText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","closesWorldDay":859,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"RFC 16, fight 1 at the RFC Stadium, Las Vegas. Gearbox Gus (grinder) meets Big Bertha 9000 (heavyweight).","rules":"Resolves to the round it ends in (a decision goes the distance) in the RFC's computed fight between Gearbox Gus and Big Bertha 9000 (RFC 16, fight 1), at the RFC Stadium in Las Vegas. Every fight is a seeded calculation of parts, joints, reach, forces and damage, computed at the opening bell and played out over 10 minutes. Trading closes at the opening bell; it settles when the fight ends. Played with game gold.","resolutionSource":"The RFC's computed result (https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/76)","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 12:48 PM ET · World Day 857","resolves":1791313080,"resolvesText":"Oct 6, 2:58 PM ET · World Day 859","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791305280,"p":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673],"r":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673]},{"at":1791305640,"p":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673],"r":[0.4904,0.2212,0.1827,0.1058]},{"at":1791309480,"p":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673],"r":[0.5096,0.2404,0.2019,0.0481]},{"at":1791309720,"p":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673],"r":[0.4904,0.2404,0.1635,0.1058]},{"at":1791310786,"p":[0.4519,0.3365,0.1442,0.0673],"r":[0.4904,0.2404,0.1635,0.1058]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Round 1","o":0,"mid":45.19,"bestBid":45,"bestAsk":46,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":46,"shares":23,"people":0,"house":23,"total":10.58},{"price":47,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":23.74},{"price":48,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":37.18},{"price":49,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":50.9},{"price":50,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":64.9},{"price":51,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":79.18}],"bids":[{"price":45,"shares":5,"people":0,"house":5,"total":2.25},{"price":44,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":15.01},{"price":43,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":27.05},{"price":42,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":39.23},{"price":41,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":51.12},{"price":40,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":62.72}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Round 2","o":1,"mid":33.65,"bestBid":33,"bestAsk":34,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":34,"shares":11,"people":0,"house":11,"total":3.74},{"price":35,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":14.59},{"price":36,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":25.39},{"price":37,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":36.86},{"price":38,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":47.88},{"price":39,"shares":30,"people":0,"house":30,"total":59.58}],"bids":[{"price":33,"shares":21,"people":0,"house":21,"total":6.93},{"price":32,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":17.17},{"price":31,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":27.09},{"price":30,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":36.99},{"price":29,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":46.85},{"price":28,"shares":34,"people":0,"house":34,"total":56.37}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Round 3","o":2,"mid":14.42,"bestBid":14,"bestAsk":15,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":15,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":4.8},{"price":16,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":13.44},{"price":17,"shares":50,"people":0,"house":50,"total":21.94},{"price":18,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":30.76},{"price":19,"shares":46,"people":0,"house":46,"total":39.5},{"price":20,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":48.5}],"bids":[{"price":14,"shares":24,"people":0,"house":24,"total":3.36},{"price":13,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":11.16},{"price":12,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":18.84},{"price":11,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":26.43},{"price":10,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":33.93},{"price":9,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":41.22}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Goes the distance","o":3,"mid":6.73,"bestBid":6,"bestAsk":7,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":7,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":2.03},{"price":8,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":10.19},{"price":9,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":18.29},{"price":10,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":26.39},{"price":11,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":34.64},{"price":12,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":42.8}],"bids":[{"price":6,"shares":86,"people":0,"house":86,"total":5.16},{"price":5,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":11.91},{"price":4,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":18.43},{"price":3,"shares":209,"people":0,"house":209,"total":24.7},{"price":2,"shares":291,"people":0,"house":291,"total":30.52},{"price":1,"shares":492,"people":0,"house":492,"total":35.44}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Round 1","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Round 2","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Round 3","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Goes the distance","o":3,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1236,"slug":"rfc-17-1-ml-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-1-ml-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 17, fight 1: Big Bertha 9000 vs Gearbox Gus, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Big Bertha 9000","p":0.7157,"ref":0.6373},{"name":"Gearbox Gus","p":0.2843,"ref":0.3627}],"chance":0.7157,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/81","ref":0.6373,"b":700,"state":[-234.15936,-880.373888],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316080,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3:48 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1237,"slug":"rfc-17-1-method-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-1-method-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 17, fight 1: Big Bertha 9000 vs Gearbox Gus, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.4519,"ref":0.5096},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.1827,"ref":0.0288},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.2212,"ref":0.2212},{"name":"Decision","p":0.1442,"ref":0.2404}],"chance":0.4519,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/81","ref":0.5096,"b":700,"state":[-555.970308,-1189.966344,-1056.227678,-1355.438489],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316080,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3:48 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1238,"slug":"rfc-17-1-round-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-1-round-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 17, fight 1: Big Bertha 9000 vs Gearbox Gus, which round does it end in?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Round 1","p":0.3173,"ref":0.2981},{"name":"Round 2","p":0.3365,"ref":0.2404},{"name":"Round 3","p":0.2019,"ref":0.2212},{"name":"Goes the distance","p":0.1442,"ref":0.2404}],"chance":0.3173,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/81","ref":0.2981,"b":700,"state":[-803.518336,-762.329986,-1119.907923,-1355.438489],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316080,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3:48 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1239,"slug":"rfc-17-1-first-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-1-first-big-bertha-9000-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 17, fight 1: Big Bertha 9000 vs Gearbox Gus, which part comes off first?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Jaw","p":0.0283,"ref":0.0283},{"name":"Head","p":0.0849,"ref":0.0849},{"name":"An arm part","p":0.4057,"ref":0.3679},{"name":"A leg part","p":0.2925,"ref":0.3491},{"name":"Another part","p":0.1226,"ref":0.1604},{"name":"Nothing comes off","p":0.066,"ref":0.0094}],"chance":0.0283,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/81","ref":0.0283,"b":700,"state":[-2495.378764,-1726.350162,-631.567285,-860.616323,-1468.942816,-1902.270262],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316080,"closesText":"Oct 6, 3:48 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1240,"slug":"rfc-17-2-ml-the-toaster-vs-slag-heap-sam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-2-ml-the-toaster-vs-slag-heap-sam","q":"RFC 17, fight 2: The Toaster vs Slag Heap Sam, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"The Toaster","p":0.7353,"ref":0.7549},{"name":"Slag Heap Sam","p":0.2647,"ref":0.2451}],"chance":0.7353,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/82","ref":0.7549,"b":700,"state":[-215.23929,-930.395163],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316800,"closesText":"Oct 6, 4 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1241,"slug":"rfc-17-2-method-the-toaster-vs-slag-heap-sam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-17-2-method-the-toaster-vs-slag-heap-sam","q":"RFC 17, fight 2: The Toaster vs Slag Heap Sam, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.5288,"ref":0.5096},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.0096,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.2019,"ref":0.2019},{"name":"Decision","p":0.2596,"ref":0.2788}],"chance":0.5288,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/82","ref":0.5096,"b":700,"state":[-445.9404,-3251.073629,-1119.907923,-943.987823],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791308922,"closes":1791316800,"closesText":"Oct 6, 4 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}