{"id":1276,"slug":"rfc-18-3-first-circuit-breaker-vs-the-toaster","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-18-3-first-circuit-breaker-vs-the-toaster","q":"RFC 18, fight 3: Circuit Breaker vs The Toaster, which part comes off first?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Jaw","p":0.0283,"ref":0.0283},{"name":"Head","p":0.0849,"ref":0.1038},{"name":"An arm part","p":0.4623,"ref":0.4811},{"name":"A leg part","p":0.2925,"ref":0.2736},{"name":"Another part","p":0.1226,"ref":0.1038},{"name":"Nothing comes off","p":0.0094,"ref":0.0094}],"chance":0.0283,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/88","ref":0.0283,"b":700,"state":[-2495.378764,-1726.350162,-540.133157,-860.616323,-1468.942816,-3264.407366],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791312522,"closes":1791321120,"closesText":"Oct 6, 5:12 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"RFC 18, fight 3 at The Arena, Las Vegas. Circuit Breaker (technician) meets The Toaster (power puncher).","rules":"Resolves to the first part, of either robot, to come off (an arm part: a shoulder, upper arm, forearm or fist; a leg part: a hip, thigh, shin or foot) in the RFC's computed fight between Circuit Breaker and The Toaster (RFC 18, fight 3), at The Arena in Las Vegas. Every fight is a seeded calculation of parts, joints, reach, forces and damage, computed at the opening bell and played out over 10 minutes. Trading closes at the opening bell; it settles when the fight ends. Played with game gold.","resolutionSource":"The RFC's computed result (https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/88)","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 2:48 PM ET · World Day 859","resolves":1791321720,"resolvesText":"Oct 6, 5:22 PM ET · World Day 862","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791312480,"p":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094],"r":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094]},{"at":1791313260,"p":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094],"r":[0.0472,0.0849,0.4623,0.2547,0.1415,0.0094]},{"at":1791314520,"p":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094],"r":[0.0283,0.0849,0.5189,0.2547,0.1038,0.0094]},{"at":1791317400,"p":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094],"r":[0.0283,0.1038,0.4811,0.2736,0.1038,0.0094]},{"at":1791317655,"p":[0.0283,0.0849,0.4623,0.2925,0.1226,0.0094],"r":[0.0283,0.1038,0.4811,0.2736,0.1038,0.0094]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Jaw","o":0,"mid":2.83,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":42,"people":0,"house":42,"total":1.26},{"price":4,"shares":209,"people":0,"house":209,"total":9.62},{"price":5,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":17.77},{"price":6,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":25.87},{"price":7,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":33.99},{"price":8,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":42.07}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":249,"people":0,"house":249,"total":4.98},{"price":1,"shares":492,"people":0,"house":492,"total":9.9}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Head","o":1,"mid":8.49,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":9,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":4.05},{"price":10,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":12.15},{"price":11,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":20.4},{"price":12,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":28.68},{"price":13,"shares":64,"people":0,"house":64,"total":37},{"price":14,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":45.4}],"bids":[{"price":8,"shares":45,"people":0,"house":45,"total":3.6},{"price":7,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":10.67},{"price":6,"shares":116,"people":0,"house":116,"total":17.63},{"price":5,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":24.38},{"price":4,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":30.9},{"price":3,"shares":209,"people":0,"house":209,"total":37.17}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"An arm part","o":2,"mid":46.23,"bestBid":46,"bestAsk":47,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":47,"shares":22,"people":0,"house":22,"total":10.34},{"price":48,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":23.78},{"price":49,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":37.5},{"price":50,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":51.5},{"price":51,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":65.78},{"price":52,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":80.34}],"bids":[{"price":46,"shares":6,"people":0,"house":6,"total":2.76},{"price":45,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":15.81},{"price":44,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":28.13},{"price":43,"shares":28,"people":0,"house":28,"total":40.17},{"price":42,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":52.35},{"price":41,"shares":29,"people":0,"house":29,"total":64.24}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"A leg part","o":3,"mid":29.25,"bestBid":29,"bestAsk":30,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":30,"shares":25,"people":0,"house":25,"total":7.5},{"price":31,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":17.73},{"price":32,"shares":33,"people":0,"house":33,"total":28.29},{"price":33,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":38.85},{"price":34,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":49.39},{"price":35,"shares":31,"people":0,"house":31,"total":60.24}],"bids":[{"price":29,"shares":8,"people":0,"house":8,"total":2.32},{"price":28,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":12.12},{"price":27,"shares":35,"people":0,"house":35,"total":21.57},{"price":26,"shares":36,"people":0,"house":36,"total":30.93},{"price":25,"shares":37,"people":0,"house":37,"total":40.18},{"price":24,"shares":37,"people":0,"house":37,"total":49.06}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Another part","o":4,"mid":12.26,"bestBid":12,"bestAsk":13,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":13,"shares":47,"people":0,"house":47,"total":6.11},{"price":14,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":14.51},{"price":15,"shares":56,"people":0,"house":56,"total":22.91},{"price":16,"shares":54,"people":0,"house":54,"total":31.55},{"price":17,"shares":50,"people":0,"house":50,"total":40.05},{"price":18,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":48.87}],"bids":[{"price":12,"shares":17,"people":0,"house":17,"total":2.04},{"price":11,"shares":69,"people":0,"house":69,"total":9.63},{"price":10,"shares":75,"people":0,"house":75,"total":17.13},{"price":9,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":24.42},{"price":8,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":31.62},{"price":7,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":38.69}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Nothing comes off","o":5,"mid":0.94,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":41,"people":0,"house":41,"total":0.41},{"price":2,"shares":492,"people":0,"house":492,"total":10.25},{"price":3,"shares":292,"people":0,"house":292,"total":19.01},{"price":4,"shares":208,"people":0,"house":208,"total":27.33},{"price":5,"shares":164,"people":0,"house":164,"total":35.53},{"price":6,"shares":135,"people":0,"house":135,"total":43.63}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Jaw","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Head","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"An arm part","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"A leg part","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Another part","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Nothing comes off","o":5,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":1292,"slug":"rfc-19-1-ml-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-1-ml-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 19, fight 1: Slag Heap Sam vs Gearbox Gus, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Slag Heap Sam","p":0.2843,"ref":0.3235},{"name":"Gearbox Gus","p":0.7157,"ref":0.6765}],"chance":0.2843,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/91","ref":0.3235,"b":700,"state":[-880.373888,-234.15936],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791323280,"closesText":"Oct 6, 5:48 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1293,"slug":"rfc-19-1-method-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-1-method-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 19, fight 1: Slag Heap Sam vs Gearbox Gus, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.3173,"ref":0.2981},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.0288,"ref":0.0288},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.1442,"ref":0.1635},{"name":"Decision","p":0.5096,"ref":0.5096}],"chance":0.3173,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/91","ref":0.2981,"b":700,"state":[-803.518336,-2482.045027,-1355.438489,-471.86929],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791323280,"closesText":"Oct 6, 5:48 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1294,"slug":"rfc-19-1-round-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-1-round-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 19, fight 1: Slag Heap Sam vs Gearbox Gus, which round does it end in?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Round 1","p":0.2019,"ref":0.2212},{"name":"Round 2","p":0.1635,"ref":0.125},{"name":"Round 3","p":0.125,"ref":0.1442},{"name":"Goes the distance","p":0.5096,"ref":0.5096}],"chance":0.2019,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/91","ref":0.2212,"b":700,"state":[-1119.907923,-1267.824289,-1455.609079,-471.86929],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791323280,"closesText":"Oct 6, 5:48 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1295,"slug":"rfc-19-1-first-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-1-first-slag-heap-sam-vs-gearbox-gus","q":"RFC 19, fight 1: Slag Heap Sam vs Gearbox Gus, which part comes off first?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Jaw","p":0.0283,"ref":0.0094},{"name":"Head","p":0.0472,"ref":0.0472},{"name":"An arm part","p":0.3302,"ref":0.3491},{"name":"A leg part","p":0.3491,"ref":0.3491},{"name":"Another part","p":0.1792,"ref":0.1792},{"name":"Nothing comes off","p":0.066,"ref":0.066}],"chance":0.0283,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/91","ref":0.0094,"b":700,"state":[-2495.378764,-2137.800827,-775.663723,-736.764827,-1203.30008,-1902.270262],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791323280,"closesText":"Oct 6, 5:48 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1296,"slug":"rfc-19-2-ml-the-toaster-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-2-ml-the-toaster-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 19, fight 2: The Toaster vs Big Bertha 9000, who wins?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"The Toaster","p":0.7941,"ref":0.7941},{"name":"Big Bertha 9000","p":0.2059,"ref":0.2059}],"chance":0.7941,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/92","ref":0.7941,"b":700,"state":[-161.366561,-1106.315263],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791324000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 6 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1297,"slug":"rfc-19-2-method-the-toaster-vs-big-bertha-9000","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/rfc-19-2-method-the-toaster-vs-big-bertha-9000","q":"RFC 19, fight 2: The Toaster vs Big Bertha 9000, how does it end?","cat":"rfc","catName":"RFC Fights","emoji":"🥊","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"KO (head off)","p":0.5288,"ref":0.5481},{"name":"Power core failure","p":0.0481,"ref":0.0673},{"name":"TKO (dismantled)","p":0.3365,"ref":0.2981},{"name":"Decision","p":0.0865,"ref":0.0865}],"chance":0.5288,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"rfc","source":"RFC","sourceUrl":"https://worldsimsocial.com/rfc/fight/92","ref":0.5481,"b":700,"state":[-445.9404,-2124.467091,-762.329986,-1713.016425],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791316122,"closes":1791324000,"closesText":"Oct 6, 6 PM ET · World Day 862","closesWorldDay":862,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}