{"id":1449,"slug":"russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","q":"Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.075,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.925,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.075,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-pneumonic-plague-spreads-abroad","ref":0.065,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1415,"state":[-3665.228039,-110.315581],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791337002,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA \"confirmed case\" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. \n\nAn epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak. \n\nResolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:36 PM ET · World Day 866","resolves":1798779540,"resolvesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791336960,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.075,0.925]},{"at":1791337020,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.09,0.91]},{"at":1791338220,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.06,0.94]},{"at":1791339000,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.055,0.945]},{"at":1791340200,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.065,0.935]},{"at":1791341418,"p":[0.075,0.925],"r":[0.065,0.935]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":7.5,"bestBid":7,"bestAsk":8,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":8,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":7.92},{"price":9,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":24.3},{"price":10,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":40.8},{"price":11,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":57.41},{"price":12,"shares":139,"people":0,"house":139,"total":74.09},{"price":13,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":90.86}],"bids":[{"price":7,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":7.35},{"price":6,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":21.39},{"price":5,"shares":272,"people":0,"house":272,"total":34.99},{"price":4,"shares":331,"people":0,"house":331,"total":48.23},{"price":3,"shares":422,"people":0,"house":422,"total":60.89},{"price":2,"shares":588,"people":0,"house":588,"total":72.65}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":92.5,"bestBid":92,"bestAsk":93,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":93,"shares":105,"people":0,"house":105,"total":97.65},{"price":94,"shares":234,"people":0,"house":234,"total":317.61},{"price":95,"shares":272,"people":0,"house":272,"total":576.01},{"price":96,"shares":331,"people":0,"house":331,"total":893.77},{"price":97,"shares":422,"people":0,"house":422,"total":1303.11},{"price":98,"shares":588,"people":0,"house":588,"total":1879.35}],"bids":[{"price":92,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":91.08},{"price":91,"shares":182,"people":0,"house":182,"total":256.7},{"price":90,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":405.2},{"price":89,"shares":151,"people":0,"house":151,"total":539.59},{"price":88,"shares":139,"people":0,"house":139,"total":661.91},{"price":87,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":774.14}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":855,"slug":"plague-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/plague-pandemic-in-2026","q":"Plague pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0505,"ref":0.033},{"name":"No","p":0.9495,"ref":0.967}],"chance":0.0505,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/plague-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.033,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":1427,"state":[-4260.710832,-73.946781],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791275381,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":107,"slug":"new-pandemic-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/new-pandemic-in-2026","q":"New pandemic in 2026?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.055,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.945,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.055,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-pandemic-in-2026","ref":0.065,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4093,"state":[-11871.42763,-231.542449],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1442,"slug":"all-millennium-prize-problems-solved-before-may-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/all-millennium-prize-problems-solved-before-may-2027","q":"All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.08,"ref":0.08},{"name":"No","p":0.92,"ref":0.92}],"chance":0.08,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Plant/all-millennium-prize-problems-solve","ref":0.08,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":2171,"state":[-5483.356887,-181.021473],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791335922,"closes":1809129540,"closesText":"Apr 30, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 5,808","closesWorldDay":5808,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1110,"slug":"majority-of-scientists-believe-theres-life-on-k2-18-b-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/majority-of-scientists-believe-theres-life-on-k2-18-b-before-2027","q":"Majority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0528,"ref":0.0527},{"name":"No","p":0.9472,"ref":0.9473}],"chance":0.0528,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/SG/majority-of-scientists-believe-ther","ref":0.0527,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1965,"state":[-5779.866593,-106.573509],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296982,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":522,"slug":"more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-plague","q":"More than 1000 cases of Irkutsk Plague?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1126,"ref":0.06},{"name":"No","p":0.8874,"ref":0.94}],"chance":0.1126,"change24":0,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JoeandSeth/more-than-1000-cases-of-irkutsk-pla","ref":0.06,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1357,"state":[-2963.78952,-162.078698],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791248965,"closes":1830297540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 11,688","closesWorldDay":11688,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":975,"slug":"is-lumina-probiotics-a-scam","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/is-lumina-probiotics-a-scam","q":"Is Lumina probiotics a scam?","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.4942,"ref":0.4942},{"name":"No","p":0.5058,"ref":0.5058}],"chance":0.4942,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/drcat/will-lumina-probiotics-be-discovere","ref":0.4942,"refSrc":"Manifold","b":1357,"state":[-956.523012,-924.863095],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791285221,"closes":1795841940,"closesText":"Nov 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,117","closesWorldDay":2117,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}