{"id":1285,"slug":"russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-15-2026","q":"Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.06,"ref":0.065},{"name":"No","p":0.94,"ref":0.935}],"chance":0.06,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716","ref":0.065,"b":2499,"state":[-7030.713381,-154.626634],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791312882,"closes":1792108740,"closesText":"Oct 15, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 1,080","closesWorldDay":1080,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nMeetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 2:54 PM ET · World Day 859","resolves":1792108740,"resolvesText":"Oct 15, 7:59 PM ET · World Day 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of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6466,"ref":0.6345},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.29,"ref":0.2705},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0527,"ref":0.0836},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0079,"ref":0.0089},{"name":"Other","p":0.0028,"ref":0.0025}],"chance":0.6466,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2645,"trades":37,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6345,"b":7367.5,"state":[-567.59857,-6475.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Flanagan (D)","p":0.8029,"ref":0.8663},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1971,"ref":0.1337}],"chance":0.8029,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":3377,"trades":84,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.8663,"b":2937,"state":[2732.059307,-1393.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}