{"id":1328,"slug":"russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-october-31-2026","q":"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.036,"ref":0.0345},{"name":"No","p":0.964,"ref":0.9655}],"chance":0.036,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by","ref":0.0345,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":3891,"state":[-12934.603601,-142.659563],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791319002,"closes":1793483940,"closesText":"Oct 31, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 1,462","closesWorldDay":1462,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. \n\nAny form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nAny calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (inclusive). If a qualifying ceasefire goes into effect prior to this market’s end date, this market will remain open until the ceasefire is no longer in effect, or until the 10 calendar days have been reached. \n\nA ceasefire is considered no longer in effect when a consensus of credible reporting indicates the general suspension of hostilities has substantively ended across the primary theater. Temporary or technical lapses or expiration of a formal ceasefire term, isolated incidents, localized violations, or accusations alone will not invalidate the ceasefire provided the general suspension of hostilities across the primary theater continues. Where official government statements conflict with a consensus of credible field reporting, the reporting will take precedence over the government statements. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.\n\nExamples of qualifying Ceasefires:\n\nApril 8, 2026 US-Iran ceasefire: The United States and Iran publicly annou","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 4:36 PM ET · World Day 861","resolves":1793483940,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 5:59 PM ET · World Day 1,462","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791318960,"p":[0.036,0.964],"r":[0.036,0.964]},{"at":1791327088,"p":[0.036,0.964],"r":[0.0345,0.9655]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":3.6,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":426,"people":0,"house":426,"total":17.04},{"price":5,"shares":909,"people":0,"house":909,"total":62.49},{"price":6,"shares":751,"people":0,"house":751,"total":107.55},{"price":7,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":152.42},{"price":8,"shares":562,"people":0,"house":562,"total":197.38},{"price":9,"shares":501,"people":0,"house":501,"total":242.47}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":734,"people":0,"house":734,"total":22.02},{"price":2,"shares":1617,"people":0,"house":1617,"total":54.36},{"price":1,"shares":2737,"people":0,"house":2737,"total":81.73}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":96.4,"bestBid":96,"bestAsk":97,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":97,"shares":734,"people":0,"house":734,"total":711.98},{"price":98,"shares":1617,"people":0,"house":1617,"total":2296.64},{"price":99,"shares":2737,"people":0,"house":2737,"total":5006.27}],"bids":[{"price":96,"shares":426,"people":0,"house":426,"total":408.96},{"price":95,"shares":909,"people":0,"house":909,"total":1272.51},{"price":94,"shares":751,"people":0,"house":751,"total":1978.45},{"price":93,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":2574.58},{"price":92,"shares":562,"people":0,"house":562,"total":3091.62},{"price":91,"shares":501,"people":0,"house":501,"total":3547.53}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":13,"slug":"us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","q":"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.8,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.2,"change24":0.0506,"change7d":null,"vol":4041,"trades":95,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-october-15-2026","ref":0.125,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":4035,"state":[-2453.546621,3140.200831],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":26,"slug":"us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","q":"US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.8085,"ref":0.865},{"name":"No","p":0.1915,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8085,"change24":0.0033,"change7d":null,"vol":4888,"trades":97,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-15","ref":0.865,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":2983,"state":[4168.675856,-126.974119],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":11,"slug":"clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/clarity-act-h-r-3633-signed-into-law-in-2026","q":"Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?","cat":"crypto","catName":"Crypto","emoji":"🪙","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1302,"ref":0.05},{"name":"No","p":0.8698,"ref":0.95}],"chance":0.1302,"change24":0.0758,"change7d":null,"vol":2297,"trades":102,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026","ref":0.05,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6064,"state":[-10725.825141,793.524649],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779600,"closesText":"Jan 1, 12 AM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":98,"slug":"will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","q":"Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0865,"ref":0.023},{"name":"No","p":0.9135,"ref":0.977}],"chance":0.0865,"change24":0.0505,"change7d":null,"vol":1471,"trades":86,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027","ref":0.023,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6328,"state":[-14717.91816,199.542951],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":19,"slug":"will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027","q":"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1271,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.8729,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1271,"change24":0.0654,"change7d":null,"vol":757,"trades":51,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026","ref":0.055,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":6143,"state":[-12184.292922,-347.511669],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1152,"slug":"trump-out-as-president-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/trump-out-as-president-before-2027","q":"Trump out as President before 2027?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["trump","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0907,"ref":0.037},{"name":"No","p":0.9093,"ref":0.963}],"chance":0.0907,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":326,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027","ref":0.037,"refSrc":"Polymarket","b":5640,"state":[-13213.898624,-209.710942],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791301002,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}