{"id":1086,"slug":"s-and-p-500-spx-up-or-down-on-october-6","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/s-and-p-500-spx-up-or-down-on-october-6","q":"S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 6?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["stocks"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Up","p":0.915,"ref":0.967},{"name":"Down","p":0.085,"ref":0.033}],"chance":0.915,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/spx-up-or-down-on-october-6-2026","ref":0.967,"b":1358,"state":[-120.632788,-3347.611263],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791294942,"closes":1791316800,"closesText":"Oct 6, 4 PM ET · World Day 860","closesWorldDay":860,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This market will resolve to \"Up\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Down\" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.\n\nE.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.\n\nIf the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\n\nIf SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.\n\nIf either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.\n\nIf either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under \"Historical Prices\".\n\nUS: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks\nEMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea \nASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 9:55 AM ET · World Day 854","resolves":1791316800,"resolvesText":"Oct 6, 4 PM ET · World Day 860","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791294900,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.915,0.085]},{"at":1791294960,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.925,0.075]},{"at":1791295740,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.94,0.06]},{"at":1791296040,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.955,0.045]},{"at":1791297180,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.92,0.08]},{"at":1791298320,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.955,0.045]},{"at":1791299460,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.967,0.033]},{"at":1791300469,"p":[0.915,0.085],"r":[0.967,0.033]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Up","o":0,"mid":91.5,"bestBid":91,"bestAsk":92,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":92,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":82.8},{"price":93,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":265.08},{"price":94,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":475.64},{"price":95,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":724.54},{"price":96,"shares":317,"people":0,"house":317,"total":1028.86},{"price":97,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":1421.71}],"bids":[{"price":91,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":77.35},{"price":90,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":219.55},{"price":89,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":348.6},{"price":88,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":465.64},{"price":87,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":573.52},{"price":86,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":674.14}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Down","o":1,"mid":8.5,"bestBid":8,"bestAsk":9,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":9,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":7.65},{"price":10,"shares":158,"people":0,"house":158,"total":23.45},{"price":11,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":39.4},{"price":12,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":55.36},{"price":13,"shares":124,"people":0,"house":124,"total":71.48},{"price":14,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":87.86}],"bids":[{"price":8,"shares":90,"people":0,"house":90,"total":7.2},{"price":7,"shares":196,"people":0,"house":196,"total":20.92},{"price":6,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":34.36},{"price":5,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":47.46},{"price":4,"shares":317,"people":0,"house":317,"total":60.14},{"price":3,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":72.29}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Up","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Down","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.8057,"ref":0.8254},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1832,"ref":0.1651},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.004,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0045},{"name":"Other","p":0.0036,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.8057,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":844,"trades":23,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.8254,"b":7670,"state":[-812.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":1105,"slug":"bank-of-england-decision-in-november","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bank-of-england-decision-in-november","q":"Bank of England decision in November?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.92,"ref":0.9275},{"name":"No change","p":0.07,"ref":0.0655},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.006,"ref":0.006},{"name":"Other","p":0.004,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.92,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":15,"trades":1,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-november-20260730150602252","ref":0.9275,"b":3201,"state":[-250.859384,-8498.465851,-16360.257441,-17658.151252],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791296142,"closes":1793923140,"closesText":"Nov 5, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 1,584","closesWorldDay":1584,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}