{"id":108,"slug":"saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by-october-31","q":"Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.135,"ref":0.115},{"name":"No","p":0.865,"ref":0.885}],"chance":0.135,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by","ref":0.115,"b":2339,"state":[-4683.801891,-339.215281],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?","rules":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.\n\nAll listed countries/parties must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for a Yes resolution. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.\n\nEach announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.\n\nWhether announcements from the listed countries represent a ceasefire agreement will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where a potentially qualifying announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a ceasefire agreement between","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:27 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1793505540,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791232020,"p":[0.135,0.865],"r":[0.135,0.865]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.135,0.865],"r":[0.135,0.865]},{"at":1791247620,"p":[0.135,0.865],"r":[0.115,0.885]},{"at":1791249452,"p":[0.135,0.865],"r":[0.115,0.885]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":13.5,"bestBid":13,"bestAsk":14,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":14,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":13.86},{"price":15,"shares":188,"people":0,"house":188,"total":42.06},{"price":16,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":70.7},{"price":17,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":99.6},{"price":18,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":128.76},{"price":19,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":158.21}],"bids":[{"price":13,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":13.26},{"price":12,"shares":214,"people":0,"house":214,"total":38.94},{"price":11,"shares":230,"people":0,"house":230,"total":64.24},{"price":10,"shares":249,"people":0,"house":249,"total":89.14},{"price":9,"shares":272,"people":0,"house":272,"total":113.62},{"price":8,"shares":301,"people":0,"house":301,"total":137.7}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":86.5,"bestBid":86,"bestAsk":87,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":87,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":88.74},{"price":88,"shares":214,"people":0,"house":214,"total":277.06},{"price":89,"shares":230,"people":0,"house":230,"total":481.76},{"price":90,"shares":249,"people":0,"house":249,"total":705.86},{"price":91,"shares":272,"people":0,"house":272,"total":953.38},{"price":92,"shares":301,"people":0,"house":301,"total":1230.3}],"bids":[{"price":86,"shares":99,"people":0,"house":99,"total":85.14},{"price":85,"shares":188,"people":0,"house":188,"total":244.94},{"price":84,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":395.3},{"price":83,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":536.4},{"price":82,"shares":162,"people":0,"house":162,"total":669.24},{"price":81,"shares":155,"people":0,"house":155,"total":794.79}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":95,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0714,"ref":0.0225},{"name":"No","p":0.9286,"ref":0.9775}],"chance":0.0714,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":749,"trades":22,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026","ref":0.0225,"b":3794,"state":[-9379.639617,353.252394],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":106,"slug":"us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026","q":"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.17,"ref":0.125},{"name":"No","p":0.83,"ref":0.875}],"chance":0.17,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":343,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191","ref":0.125,"b":4794,"state":[-8151.842751,-550.149496],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":21,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-october-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.816,"ref":0.835},{"name":"No","p":0.184,"ref":0.165}],"chance":0.816,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":274,"trades":10,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963","ref":0.835,"b":4181,"state":[-575.93278,-6804.366795],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793478540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 4:29 PM ET · World Day 1,461","closesWorldDay":1461,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":526,"slug":"israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-31","q":"Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 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2026?","cat":"world","catName":"World","emoji":"🌍","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.67,"ref":0.67},{"name":"No","p":0.33,"ref":0.33}],"chance":0.67,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/uss-george-washington-departs-centcom-byptptpt","ref":0.67,"b":1664,"state":[-666.394671,-1844.814607],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1796101140,"closesText":"Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,189","closesWorldDay":2189,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":196,"slug":"will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026","q":"Will Iran's regime fall in 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}