{"id":64,"slug":"saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-31","q":"Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.51,"ref":0.5015},{"name":"No","p":0.49,"ref":0.4985}],"chance":0.51,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-31","ref":0.5015,"b":3621,"state":[-2438.180627,-2583.039944],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?","rules":"On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies.\n\nAnnouncements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify.\n\nOnce a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle). If Polymarket voids or cancels it, everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 4:23 PM ET · World Day 837","resolves":1793505540,"resolvesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791231780,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.51,0.49]},{"at":1791233340,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.504,0.496]},{"at":1791234600,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.513,0.487]},{"at":1791235200,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.503,0.497]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.509,0.491]},{"at":1791248340,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.4975,0.5025]},{"at":1791249413,"p":[0.51,0.49],"r":[0.5015,0.4985]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":51,"bestBid":50,"bestAsk":52,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":52,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":75.4},{"price":53,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":152.25},{"price":54,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":231.09},{"price":55,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":311.39},{"price":56,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":393.15},{"price":57,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":477.51}],"bids":[{"price":50,"shares":262,"people":117,"house":145,"total":131},{"price":49,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":202.05},{"price":48,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":271.65},{"price":47,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":339.8},{"price":46,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":406.5},{"price":45,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":472.2}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[{"price":50,"shares":117}]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":49,"bestBid":48,"bestAsk":50,"spread":2,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":50,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":72.5},{"price":51,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":146.45},{"price":52,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":221.85},{"price":53,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":298.7},{"price":54,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":377},{"price":55,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":457.3}],"bids":[{"price":48,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":69.6},{"price":47,"shares":145,"people":0,"house":145,"total":137.75},{"price":46,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":204.91},{"price":45,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":270.61},{"price":44,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":334.85},{"price":43,"shares":148,"people":0,"house":148,"total":398.49}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":54,"slug":"saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-15","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-15","q":"Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.255,"ref":0.295},{"name":"No","p":0.745,"ref":0.705}],"chance":0.255,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-october-15","ref":0.295,"b":3386,"state":[-4626.941011,-996.740411],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1792123140,"closesText":"Oct 15, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,084","closesWorldDay":1084,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":134,"slug":"saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-november-30","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-by-november-30","q":"Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.75,"ref":0.75},{"name":"No","p":0.25,"ref":0.25}],"chance":0.75,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-oil-pipeline-east-west-restarts-byptptpt","ref":0.75,"b":1804,"state":[-518.978459,-2500.875027],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1796101140,"closesText":"Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,189","closesWorldDay":2189,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0786,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9214,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.0786,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":738,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-9516.501882,407.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1943,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.8057,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.1943,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":522,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8861.424072,-715.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7911,"ref":0.7966},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1969,"ref":0.1954},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0043,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0038,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0038,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7911,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":290,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7966,"b":7670,"state":[-1506.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1228,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.8772,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.1228,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":135,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-8938.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}