{"id":964,"slug":"spain-general-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/spain-general-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Spain General Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"PP","p":0.7665,"ref":0.845},{"name":"PSOE","p":0.2335,"ref":0.155}],"chance":0.7665,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner","ref":0.845,"b":1643,"state":[-436.912954,-2389.845912],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791284141,"closes":1796014740,"closesText":"Nov 29, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,165","closesWorldDay":2165,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":"Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.","rules":"Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nSeats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).","resolutionSource":"Polymarket's own resolution (UMA's optimistic oracle): the outcome whose Polymarket market resolves Yes wins here; one not listed here counts as Other. If Polymarket voids it, everyone is refunded.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 6, 6:55 AM ET · World Day 851","resolves":1796014740,"resolvesText":"Nov 29, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,165","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791284100,"p":[0.7665,0.2335],"r":[0.7665,0.2335]},{"at":1791286860,"p":[0.7665,0.2335],"r":[0.805,0.195]},{"at":1791288420,"p":[0.7665,0.2335],"r":[0.845,0.155]},{"at":1791293998,"p":[0.7665,0.2335],"r":[0.845,0.155]}],"book":[{"outcome":"PP","o":0,"mid":76.65,"bestBid":76,"bestAsk":77,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":77,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":24.64},{"price":78,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":98.74},{"price":79,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":175.37},{"price":80,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":256.17},{"price":81,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":340.41},{"price":82,"shares":109,"people":0,"house":109,"total":429.79}],"bids":[{"price":76,"shares":59,"people":0,"house":59,"total":44.84},{"price":75,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":111.59},{"price":74,"shares":86,"people":0,"house":86,"total":175.23},{"price":73,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":237.28},{"price":72,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":296.32},{"price":71,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":353.83}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"PSOE","o":1,"mid":23.35,"bestBid":23,"bestAsk":24,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":24,"shares":59,"people":0,"house":59,"total":14.16},{"price":25,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":36.41},{"price":26,"shares":86,"people":0,"house":86,"total":58.77},{"price":27,"shares":85,"people":0,"house":85,"total":81.72},{"price":28,"shares":82,"people":0,"house":82,"total":104.68},{"price":29,"shares":81,"people":0,"house":81,"total":128.17}],"bids":[{"price":23,"shares":32,"people":0,"house":32,"total":7.36},{"price":22,"shares":95,"people":0,"house":95,"total":28.26},{"price":21,"shares":97,"people":0,"house":97,"total":48.63},{"price":20,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":68.83},{"price":19,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":88.59},{"price":18,"shares":109,"people":0,"house":109,"total":108.21}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"PP","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"PSOE","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6244,"ref":0.645},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.3082,"ref":0.2609},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.056,"ref":0.0837},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0084,"ref":0.0094},{"name":"Other","p":0.003,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6244,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":2197,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.645,"b":7367.5,"state":[-1272.59857,-6475.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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Eizenkot","p":0.5161,"ref":0.5071},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3442,"ref":0.3755},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1018,"ref":0.0899},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0163,"ref":0.0159},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.005,"ref":0.0058},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.0045,"ref":0.0048},{"name":"Other","p":0.0122,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.5161,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1029,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.5071,"b":8067.5,"state":[-4307.562251,-7575.754031,-17400.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 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simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}