{"id":476,"slug":"us-market-crash-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/us-market-crash-in-2026","q":"Us market crash in 2026?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0469,"ref":0.0469},{"name":"No","p":0.9531,"ref":0.9531}],"chance":0.0469,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/Creation/us-market-crash-in-2026","ref":0.0469,"b":1000,"state":[-3060.726788,-47.986799],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791244165,"closes":1798761540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 2,928","closesWorldDay":2928,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution Criteria\n\nA market crash is generally defined as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 index. This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 5,476 points at any time during 2026 (a 20% decline from the 6,845.5 closing level at the end of 2025). Resolution will be verified using the S&P 500 historical data from FRED or MarketWatch S&P 500 tracker.\n\nBackground\n\nThe S&P 500 rose 16.39% in 2025, extending a strong bull market. The CAPE ratio has been hovering in the 39-40 range recently and closed 2025 slightly above 40, which is only the second time in the history of the market that this valuation gauge has surpassed 40. The most recent was in 2020 as the markets recovered from the shock of COVID-19, and it previously reached that level in the run-up of the dot-com bubble.\n\nWall Street forecasts reviewed by CNN show a wide range of targets from strategists, though all estimate positive gains for 2026. Yardeni Research estimates odds of a severe correction or a bear market, triggered by either recession fears or an actual recession, remain low at 20%.\n\nConsiderations\n\nWhen the S&P 500 has gained at least 15% in a year, the following year usually sees average returns of about 8%, though it's often a bumpy ride with average mid-year drawdowns of roughly 14%. Uncertainty about Trump's pick for Federal Reserve Chair as well as persistent geopolitical tensions and tariffs could create headwinds for stocks. The high CAPE ratio suggests that the \"margin for error\" is razor-thin, and forced buying increases the risk of a \"melt-up\" followed by a painful correction if the economic data turns sour.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:49 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1799020740,"resolvesText":"Jan 3, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 3,000","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791244140,"p":[0.0469,0.9531],"r":[0.0469,0.9531]},{"at":1791256860,"p":[0.0469,0.9531],"r":[0.0469,0.9531]},{"at":1791264195,"p":[0.0469,0.9531],"r":[0.0469,0.9531]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"mid":4.69,"bestBid":4,"bestAsk":5,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":5,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":3.4},{"price":6,"shares":193,"people":0,"house":193,"total":14.98},{"price":7,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":26.53},{"price":8,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":38.05},{"price":9,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":49.66},{"price":10,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":61.36}],"bids":[{"price":4,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":6.6},{"price":3,"shares":298,"people":0,"house":298,"total":15.54},{"price":2,"shares":416,"people":0,"house":416,"total":23.86},{"price":1,"shares":703,"people":0,"house":703,"total":30.89}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"mid":95.31,"bestBid":95,"bestAsk":96,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":96,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":158.4},{"price":97,"shares":298,"people":0,"house":298,"total":447.46},{"price":98,"shares":416,"people":0,"house":416,"total":855.14},{"price":99,"shares":703,"people":0,"house":703,"total":1551.11}],"bids":[{"price":95,"shares":68,"people":0,"house":68,"total":64.6},{"price":94,"shares":193,"people":0,"house":193,"total":246.02},{"price":93,"shares":165,"people":0,"house":165,"total":399.47},{"price":92,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":531.95},{"price":91,"shares":129,"people":0,"house":129,"total":649.34},{"price":90,"shares":117,"people":0,"house":117,"total":754.64}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Yes","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"No","o":1,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":16,"slug":"strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","q":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.2009,"ref":0.185},{"name":"No","p":0.7991,"ref":0.815}],"chance":0.2009,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":942,"trades":26,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","ref":0.185,"b":5728,"state":[-8251.424072,-341.760725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":28,"slug":"fed-decision-in-october","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-october","q":"Fed Decision in October?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"No change","p":0.7947,"ref":0.7985},{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.1935,"ref":0.1935},{"name":"50+ bps increase","p":0.0042,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"25 bps decrease","p":0.0038,"ref":0.0035},{"name":"Other","p":0.0038,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.7947,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":423,"trades":12,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","ref":0.7985,"b":7670,"state":[-1338.962359,-12174.269934,-41465.482841,-42353.554044,-42353.554044],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793246340,"closesText":"Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,396","closesWorldDay":1396,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":24,"slug":"bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31","q":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.1,"ref":0.055},{"name":"No","p":0.9,"ref":0.945}],"chance":0.1,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1221,"trades":28,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","ref":0.055,"b":4032,"state":[-8062.501882,796.908343],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793505540,"closesText":"Oct 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,468","closesWorldDay":1468,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":57,"slug":"will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/will-crude-oil-reach-a-new-all-time-high-by-december-31","q":"Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.146,"ref":0.095},{"name":"No","p":0.854,"ref":0.905}],"chance":0.146,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":250,"trades":11,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/crude-oil-all-time-high-by","ref":0.095,"b":4327,"state":[-8076.231782,-431.922591],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":160,"slug":"xi-jinping-out-before-2027","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","q":"Xi Jinping out before 2027?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":[],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0442,"ref":0.0245},{"name":"No","p":0.9558,"ref":0.9755}],"chance":0.0442,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":116,"trades":7,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027","ref":0.0245,"b":5738,"state":[-17783.713442,-142.331772],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233005,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":233,"slug":"fed-decision-in-december","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/fed-decision-in-december","q":"Fed Decision in December?","cat":"economy","catName":"Economy","emoji":"💵","tags":["fed"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"25 bps increase","p":0.7303,"ref":0.7337},{"name":"No change","p":0.2206,"ref":0.2216},{"name":"50+ bps 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}