{"id":457,"slug":"what-will-be-the-next-country-to-send-a-manned-flight-to-the-moon","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/what-will-be-the-next-country-to-send-a-manned-flight-to-the-moon","q":"What will be the next country to send a manned flight to the moon","cat":"science","catName":"Science","emoji":"🔬","tags":["space","spacex"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"USA","p":0.5318,"ref":0.5318},{"name":"China","p":0.42,"ref":0.42},{"name":"Other","p":0.0377,"ref":0.0377},{"name":"Russia","p":0.0055,"ref":0.0055},{"name":"India","p":0.005,"ref":0.005}],"chance":0.5318,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/BillBress/what-will-be-the-next-country-to-se","ref":0.5318,"b":901,"state":[-568.943491,-781.618012,-2952.768013,-4692.987488,-4777.096085],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791242965,"closes":1795266900,"closesText":"Nov 21, 8:15 AM ET · World Day 1,958","closesWorldDay":1958,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolution Criteria\n\nThis market will resolve to the country that successfully conducts the next manned lunar landing. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective space agencies or credible news sources confirming the successful landing of astronauts on the Moon's surface.\n\nBackground\n\nSeveral nations have announced plans for crewed lunar missions in the coming years:\n\nUnited States: NASA's Artemis program aims to return astronauts to the Moon. Artemis III, the mission intended to land astronauts on the lunar surface, is currently scheduled for September 2026. However, this timeline is subject to change due to technical and budgetary considerations. (freethink.com)\n\nChina: The China National Space Administration (CNSA) has set a goal to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030. Recent missions, such as Chang'e-6, have demonstrated China's growing capabilities in lunar exploration. (lemonde.fr)\n\nIndia: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has announced plans for a crewed lunar mission by 2040. While this timeline is further out compared to the U.S. and China, India's recent successes, like the Chandrayaan-3 mission, indicate a strong commitment to lunar exploration. (phys.org)\n\nRussia: Russia's lunar program has faced setbacks, including the failure of the Luna-25 mission in 2023. Future plans for crewed lunar missions remain uncertain, with no confirmed timelines. (science.nasa.gov)\n\nOther: This option encompasses any other country that successfully conducts a manned lunar landing before the aforementioned nations.\n\nConsiderations\n\nDelays and Uncertainties: Space missions are complex and often subject to delays due to technical challenges, budgetary constraints, and policy changes. Traders should monitor official announcements from spa\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:29 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1795526100,"resolvesText":"Nov 24, 8:15 AM ET · World Day 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