{"id":434,"slug":"which-political-party-will-be-the-tough-on-ai-party","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-political-party-will-be-the-tough-on-ai-party","q":"Which political party will be the \"tough on AI\" party?","cat":"tech","catName":"Tech & AI","emoji":"🤖","tags":["ai","us-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"The Democratic Party","p":0.8158,"ref":0.8182},{"name":"No clear polarization by close date","p":0.1317,"ref":0.132},{"name":"The Republican Party","p":0.0485,"ref":0.0487},{"name":"A newly-prominent third party","p":0.004,"ref":0.0011}],"chance":0.8158,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/MattLashofSullivan/which-political-party-will-be-the-t","ref":0.8182,"b":1590,"state":[-323.661611,-3223.774993,-4810.634452,-8783.733079],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791241525,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"This is a \"vibes\" market not a policy analysis market. So things that indicate a YES would be one party's leaders talking about the dangers of AI while the other party says we need to race to beat China, regardless of the actual contents of legislation, regulations, orders, etc.\n\nI should hope this will be obvious by market close. This market will not resolve early, nor be extended.\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 7:05 PM ET · World Day 840","resolves":1857531540,"resolvesText":"Nov 10, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,253","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791241500,"p":[0.8158,0.1317,0.0485,0.004],"r":[0.8182,0.132,0.0487,0.0011]},{"at":1791246262,"p":[0.8158,0.1317,0.0485,0.004],"r":[0.8182,0.132,0.0487,0.0011]}],"book":[{"outcome":"The Democratic 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Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}