{"id":556,"slug":"who-will-become-the-next-governor-of-california-after-gavin-newsom","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/who-will-become-the-next-governor-of-california-after-gavin-newsom","q":"Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Xavier Becerra","p":0.9384,"ref":0.9582},{"name":"Steve Hilton","p":0.0264,"ref":0.027},{"name":"Chad Bianco","p":0.0039,"ref":0.0038},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Tom Steyer","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Elaine Culotti","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Matt Mahan","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Eleni Kounalakis","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Katie Porter","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Jon Slavet","p":0.0039,"ref":0.001},{"name":"Other","p":0.0039,"ref":0.004}],"chance":0.9384,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/who-will-become-the-next-governor-o","ref":0.9582,"b":2152,"state":[-136.827542,-7820.147518,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11932.53516,-11920.495266],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791252086,"closes":1815339540,"closesText":"Jul 11, 4:59 PM ET · World Day 7,533","closesWorldDay":7533,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Gavin Newsom is term-limited and cannot seek re-election as California governor in 2026. Who will replace him?\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 10:01 PM ET · World Day 843","resolves":1815598740,"resolvesText":"Jul 14, 4:59 PM ET · World Day 7,605","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791252060,"p":[0.9384,0.0264,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9582,0.027,0.0038,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.004]},{"at":1791264060,"p":[0.9384,0.0264,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9582,0.027,0.0038,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.004]},{"at":1791273504,"p":[0.9384,0.0264,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039,0.0039],"r":[0.9582,0.027,0.0038,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.001,0.004]}],"book":[{"outcome":"Xavier Becerra","o":0,"mid":93.84,"bestBid":93,"bestAsk":94,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":94,"shares":60,"people":0,"house":60,"total":56.4},{"price":95,"shares":416,"people":0,"house":416,"total":451.6},{"price":96,"shares":502,"people":0,"house":502,"total":933.52},{"price":97,"shares":642,"people":0,"house":642,"total":1556.26},{"price":98,"shares":894,"people":0,"house":894,"total":2432.38},{"price":99,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":3931.24}],"bids":[{"price":93,"shares":294,"people":0,"house":294,"total":273.42},{"price":92,"shares":311,"people":0,"house":311,"total":559.54},{"price":91,"shares":277,"people":0,"house":277,"total":811.61},{"price":90,"shares":250,"people":0,"house":250,"total":1036.61},{"price":89,"shares":230,"people":0,"house":230,"total":1241.31},{"price":88,"shares":211,"people":0,"house":211,"total":1426.99}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Steve Hilton","o":1,"mid":2.64,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":282,"people":0,"house":282,"total":8.46},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":34.1},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":59.25},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":84.15},{"price":7,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":109},{"price":8,"shares":311,"people":0,"house":311,"total":133.88}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":613,"people":0,"house":613,"total":12.26},{"price":1,"shares":1513,"people":0,"house":1513,"total":27.39}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Chad Bianco","o":2,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Kamala Harris","o":3,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Tom Steyer","o":4,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Elaine Culotti","o":5,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Matt Mahan","o":6,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Eleni Kounalakis","o":7,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Katie Porter","o":8,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Jon Slavet","o":9,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2035,"people":0,"house":2035,"total":20.35},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.63},{"price":3,"shares":895,"people":0,"house":895,"total":77.48},{"price":4,"shares":641,"people":0,"house":641,"total":103.12},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.27},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.17}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"mid":0.39,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":2023,"people":0,"house":2023,"total":20.23},{"price":2,"shares":1514,"people":0,"house":1514,"total":50.51},{"price":3,"shares":894,"people":0,"house":894,"total":77.33},{"price":4,"shares":642,"people":0,"house":642,"total":103.01},{"price":5,"shares":503,"people":0,"house":503,"total":128.16},{"price":6,"shares":415,"people":0,"house":415,"total":153.06}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"Xavier Becerra","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Steve Hilton","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Chad Bianco","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Kamala Harris","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Tom Steyer","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Elaine Culotti","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Matt Mahan","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Eleni Kounalakis","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Katie Porter","o":8,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Jon Slavet","o":9,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8661,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1339,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8661,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1853,"trades":54,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[1031.91756,-9623.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6847,"ref":0.6508},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2353,"ref":0.2633},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0665,"ref":0.0745},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.01,"ref":0.0104},{"name":"Other","p":0.0035,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.6847,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":940,"trades":14,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6508,"b":7367.5,"state":[-1850.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.7994,"ref":0.88},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.2006,"ref":0.12}],"chance":0.7994,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":1782,"trades":41,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.88,"b":2937,"state":[1125.059307,-2935.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":279,"slug":"south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/south-carolina-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"South Carolina Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Darline Graham Nordone (R)","p":0.8061,"ref":0.845},{"name":"Annie Andrews (D)","p":0.1939,"ref":0.155}],"chance":0.8061,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":328,"trades":9,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner","ref":0.845,"b":3725,"state":[-474.535442,-5781.055224],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791236845,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":153,"slug":"presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/presidential-election-winner-2028-who-wins","q":"Presidential Election Winner 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"JD Vance","p":0.2227,"ref":0.2664},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1541,"ref":0.1977},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1141,"ref":0.1355},{"name":"Marco Rubio","p":0.0978,"ref":0.1173},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.087,"ref":0.1044},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0497,"ref":0.059},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.033,"ref":0.0396},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0297,"ref":0.0356},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0208},{"name":"Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson","p":0.0189,"ref":0.0227},{"name":"Other","p":0.1741,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.2227,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028","ref":0.2664,"b":10000,"state":[-15019.175687,-18704.517378,-21710.827846,-23244.438868,-24415.365531,-30011.52341,-34120.670539,-35156.077328,-39675.928566,-39675.928566,-17483.893725],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232885,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":112,"slug":"democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028-who-wins","q":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","p":0.1952,"ref":0.2322},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","p":0.1697,"ref":0.2018},{"name":"Jon Ossoff","p":0.1615,"ref":0.1934},{"name":"Kamala Harris","p":0.0718,"ref":0.0919},{"name":"Josh Shapiro","p":0.0647,"ref":0.077},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","p":0.0549,"ref":0.0653},{"name":"Andy Beshear","p":0.0332,"ref":0.0407},{"name":"James Talarico","p":0.0321,"ref":0.0375},{"name":"Mark Kelly","p":0.0277,"ref":0.0329},{"name":"Wes Moore","p":0.0223,"ref":0.0265},{"name":"Other","p":0.1669,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.1952,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":0,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","ref":0.2322,"b":10000,"state":[-16336.548361,-17739.740368,-18232.450858,-26341.75302,-27378.537315,-29018.567078,-34061.033604,-34394.397807,-35851.515919,-38034.051579,-17901.29477],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232045,"closes":1857272340,"closesText":"Nov 7, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 19,181","closesWorldDay":19181,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}