{"id":234,"slug":"who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-presidential-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-presidential-election","q":"Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections","us-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"JD Vance (Vice President)","p":0.1983,"ref":0.1983},{"name":"Marco Rubio (US SoS)","p":0.0999,"ref":0.0999},{"name":"AOC (NY Representative)","p":0.0968,"ref":0.0968},{"name":"Gavin Newsom (California Governor)","p":0.0948,"ref":0.0948},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)","p":0.0338,"ref":0.0338},{"name":"Kamala Harris (Vice President)","p":0.0321,"ref":0.0321},{"name":"Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)","p":0.0247,"ref":0.0247},{"name":"Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)","p":0.0102,"ref":0.0102},{"name":"Donald Trump (45th President)","p":0.0091,"ref":0.0091},{"name":"Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)","p":0.0086,"ref":0.0086},{"name":"Other","p":0.3918,"ref":0.3918}],"chance":0.1983,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":0,"trades":[],"src":"mani","source":"Manifold","sourceUrl":"https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj","ref":0.1983,"b":2458,"state":[-3976.443196,-5662.609536,-5740.152796,-5790.03772,-8327.944526,-8455.217038,-9101.021662,-11271.404388,-11556.327804,-11702.106765,-2303.061844],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791234805,"closes":1858895940,"closesText":"Nov 26, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 19,632","closesWorldDay":19632,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null,"about":null,"rules":"Resolves 100% to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College in 2028, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.\n\nThis market may resolve prior to official certification of the electoral college votes if the election has been called by all major decision desks. \n\nAdditional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from \"other\". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions. \n\nSee also:\n\n@/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-be-the-two-major-party-nom \n@/DylanSlagh/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-9a306926e237\n\nThis mirrors a Manifold market: it resolves the way that market resolves.","resolutionSource":"Manifold's resolution (by its creator, with Manifold's moderators as backstop). N/A or canceled there means everyone is refunded here.","fee":{"taker":0.07,"maker":0,"formula":"ceil(rate x shares x P x (1 - P)) cents of gold, P = the price in gold"},"createdText":"Oct 5, 5:13 PM ET · World Day 838","resolves":1859155140,"resolvesText":"Nov 29, 6:59 PM ET · World Day 19,704","evidence":null,"proposal":null,"history":[{"at":1791234780,"p":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918],"r":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918]},{"at":1791246060,"p":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918],"r":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918]},{"at":1791246267,"p":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918],"r":[0.1983,0.0999,0.0968,0.0948,0.0338,0.0321,0.0247,0.0102,0.0091,0.0086,0.3918]}],"book":[{"outcome":"JD Vance (Vice President)","o":0,"mid":19.83,"bestBid":19,"bestAsk":20,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":20,"shares":26,"people":0,"house":26,"total":5.2},{"price":21,"shares":150,"people":0,"house":150,"total":36.7},{"price":22,"shares":146,"people":0,"house":146,"total":68.82},{"price":23,"shares":141,"people":0,"house":141,"total":101.25},{"price":24,"shares":137,"people":0,"house":137,"total":134.13},{"price":25,"shares":133,"people":0,"house":133,"total":167.38}],"bids":[{"price":19,"shares":131,"people":0,"house":131,"total":24.89},{"price":18,"shares":163,"people":0,"house":163,"total":54.23},{"price":17,"shares":170,"people":0,"house":170,"total":83.13},{"price":16,"shares":179,"people":0,"house":179,"total":111.77},{"price":15,"shares":188,"people":0,"house":188,"total":139.97},{"price":14,"shares":198,"people":0,"house":198,"total":167.69}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Marco Rubio (US SoS)","o":1,"mid":9.99,"bestBid":9,"bestAsk":10,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":10,"shares":3,"people":0,"house":3,"total":0.3},{"price":11,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":29.12},{"price":12,"shares":242,"people":0,"house":242,"total":58.16},{"price":13,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":87.28},{"price":14,"shares":211,"people":0,"house":211,"total":116.82},{"price":15,"shares":198,"people":0,"house":198,"total":146.52}],"bids":[{"price":9,"shares":283,"people":0,"house":283,"total":25.47},{"price":8,"shares":316,"people":0,"house":316,"total":50.75},{"price":7,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":75.6},{"price":6,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":99.9},{"price":5,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":123.6},{"price":4,"shares":575,"people":0,"house":575,"total":146.6}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"AOC (NY Representative)","o":2,"mid":9.68,"bestBid":9,"bestAsk":10,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":10,"shares":89,"people":0,"house":89,"total":8.9},{"price":11,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":37.72},{"price":12,"shares":242,"people":0,"house":242,"total":66.76},{"price":13,"shares":224,"people":0,"house":224,"total":95.88},{"price":14,"shares":211,"people":0,"house":211,"total":125.42},{"price":15,"shares":198,"people":0,"house":198,"total":155.12}],"bids":[{"price":9,"shares":197,"people":0,"house":197,"total":17.73},{"price":8,"shares":316,"people":0,"house":316,"total":43.01},{"price":7,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":67.86},{"price":6,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":92.16},{"price":5,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":115.86},{"price":4,"shares":575,"people":0,"house":575,"total":138.86}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Gavin Newsom (California Governor)","o":3,"mid":9.48,"bestBid":9,"bestAsk":10,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":10,"shares":144,"people":0,"house":144,"total":14.4},{"price":11,"shares":262,"people":0,"house":262,"total":43.22},{"price":12,"shares":242,"people":0,"house":242,"total":72.26},{"price":13,"shares":225,"people":0,"house":225,"total":101.51},{"price":14,"shares":210,"people":0,"house":210,"total":130.91},{"price":15,"shares":198,"people":0,"house":198,"total":160.61}],"bids":[{"price":9,"shares":142,"people":0,"house":142,"total":12.78},{"price":8,"shares":316,"people":0,"house":316,"total":38.06},{"price":7,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":62.91},{"price":6,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":87.21},{"price":5,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":110.91},{"price":4,"shares":575,"people":0,"house":575,"total":133.91}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)","o":4,"mid":3.38,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":432,"people":0,"house":432,"total":17.28},{"price":5,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":45.98},{"price":6,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":74.42},{"price":7,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":102.77},{"price":8,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":131.17},{"price":9,"shares":317,"people":0,"house":317,"total":159.7}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":301,"people":0,"house":301,"total":9.03},{"price":2,"shares":1022,"people":0,"house":1022,"total":29.47},{"price":1,"shares":1728,"people":0,"house":1728,"total":46.75}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Kamala Harris (Vice President)","o":5,"mid":3.21,"bestBid":3,"bestAsk":4,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":4,"shares":563,"people":0,"house":563,"total":22.52},{"price":5,"shares":575,"people":0,"house":575,"total":51.27},{"price":6,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":79.71},{"price":7,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":108.06},{"price":8,"shares":355,"people":0,"house":355,"total":136.46},{"price":9,"shares":316,"people":0,"house":316,"total":164.9}],"bids":[{"price":3,"shares":169,"people":0,"house":169,"total":5.07},{"price":2,"shares":1022,"people":0,"house":1022,"total":25.51},{"price":1,"shares":1729,"people":0,"house":1729,"total":42.8}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)","o":6,"mid":2.47,"bestBid":2,"bestAsk":3,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":3,"shares":495,"people":0,"house":495,"total":14.85},{"price":4,"shares":733,"people":0,"house":733,"total":44.17},{"price":5,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":72.87},{"price":6,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":101.31},{"price":7,"shares":406,"people":0,"house":406,"total":129.73},{"price":8,"shares":354,"people":0,"house":354,"total":158.05}],"bids":[{"price":2,"shares":526,"people":0,"house":526,"total":10.52},{"price":1,"shares":1729,"people":0,"house":1729,"total":27.81}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)","o":7,"mid":1.02,"bestBid":1,"bestAsk":2,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":2,"shares":1680,"people":0,"house":1680,"total":33.6},{"price":3,"shares":1022,"people":0,"house":1022,"total":64.26},{"price":4,"shares":733,"people":0,"house":733,"total":93.58},{"price":5,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":122.28},{"price":6,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":150.72},{"price":7,"shares":405,"people":0,"house":405,"total":179.07}],"bids":[{"price":1,"shares":49,"people":0,"house":49,"total":0.49}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Donald Trump (45th President)","o":8,"mid":0.91,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":239,"people":0,"house":239,"total":2.39},{"price":2,"shares":1729,"people":0,"house":1729,"total":36.97},{"price":3,"shares":1022,"people":0,"house":1022,"total":67.63},{"price":4,"shares":732,"people":0,"house":732,"total":96.91},{"price":5,"shares":574,"people":0,"house":574,"total":125.61},{"price":6,"shares":475,"people":0,"house":475,"total":154.11}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)","o":9,"mid":0.86,"bestBid":null,"bestAsk":1,"spread":null,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":1,"shares":386,"people":0,"house":386,"total":3.86},{"price":2,"shares":1729,"people":0,"house":1729,"total":38.44},{"price":3,"shares":1022,"people":0,"house":1022,"total":69.1},{"price":4,"shares":732,"people":0,"house":732,"total":98.38},{"price":5,"shares":575,"people":0,"house":575,"total":127.13},{"price":6,"shares":474,"people":0,"house":474,"total":155.57}],"bids":[],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"mid":39.18,"bestBid":39,"bestAsk":40,"spread":1,"last":null,"asks":[{"price":40,"shares":84,"people":0,"house":84,"total":33.6},{"price":41,"shares":102,"people":0,"house":102,"total":75.42},{"price":42,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":117.84},{"price":43,"shares":101,"people":0,"house":101,"total":161.27},{"price":44,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":205.27},{"price":45,"shares":100,"people":0,"house":100,"total":250.27}],"bids":[{"price":39,"shares":19,"people":0,"house":19,"total":7.41},{"price":38,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":46.93},{"price":37,"shares":104,"people":0,"house":104,"total":85.41},{"price":36,"shares":106,"people":0,"house":106,"total":123.57},{"price":35,"shares":108,"people":0,"house":108,"total":161.37},{"price":34,"shares":109,"people":0,"house":109,"total":198.43}],"people":{"asks":[],"bids":[]}}],"holders":[{"outcome":"JD Vance (Vice President)","o":0,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Marco Rubio (US SoS)","o":1,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"AOC (NY Representative)","o":2,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Gavin Newsom (California Governor)","o":3,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)","o":4,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Kamala Harris (Vice President)","o":5,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)","o":6,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)","o":7,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Donald Trump (45th President)","o":8,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)","o":9,"top":[],"count":0},{"outcome":"Other","o":10,"top":[],"count":0}],"related":[{"id":114,"slug":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","q":"Which party will win the House in 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democratic Party","p":0.8844,"ref":0.925},{"name":"Republican Party","p":0.1156,"ref":0.075}],"chance":0.8844,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":727,"trades":19,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","ref":0.925,"b":5709,"state":[25.91756,-11591.835248],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232165,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":29,"slug":"balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/balance-of-power-2026-midterms-who-wins","q":"Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Democrats Sweep","p":0.6712,"ref":0.6501},{"name":"R Senate, D House","p":0.2454,"ref":0.263},{"name":"Republicans Sweep","p":0.0693,"ref":0.0744},{"name":"D Senate, R House","p":0.0104,"ref":0.0109},{"name":"Other","p":0.0037,"ref":0.0015}],"chance":0.6712,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":632,"trades":8,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms","ref":0.6501,"b":7367.5,"state":[-2304.59857,-9719.489176,-19034.054992,-32976.156885,-40679.669526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":77,"slug":"prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","q":"Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Gadi Eizenkot","p":0.4961,"ref":0.4889},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","p":0.3554,"ref":0.3704},{"name":"Naftali Bennett","p":0.1068,"ref":0.1096},{"name":"Avigdor Lieberman","p":0.0179,"ref":0.0188},{"name":"Ofer Winter","p":0.0055,"ref":0.0059},{"name":"Itamar Ben Gvir","p":0.005,"ref":0.0054},{"name":"Other","p":0.0134,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4961,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":244,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election","ref":0.4889,"b":8067.5,"state":[-5411.562251,-8102.754031,-17801.239172,-32205.99014,-41771.009063,-42539.923939,-34526.86526],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231805,"closes":1793159940,"closesText":"Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,372","closesWorldDay":1372,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":144,"slug":"next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/next-french-presidential-election-who-wins","q":"Next French Presidential Election: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"multi","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Marine Le Pen","p":0.4317,"ref":0.4405},{"name":"Édouard Philippe","p":0.1781,"ref":0.1875},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","p":0.1203,"ref":0.1267},{"name":"David Lisnard","p":0.1179,"ref":0.1247},{"name":"François Hollande","p":0.0509,"ref":0.0512},{"name":"Gabriel Attal","p":0.0207,"ref":0.0218},{"name":"Raphaël Glucksmann","p":0.014,"ref":0.0147},{"name":"Bruno Retailleau","p":0.012,"ref":0.0126},{"name":"Sarah Knafo","p":0.0101,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Éric Zemmour","p":0.0091,"ref":0.0096},{"name":"Other","p":0.0351,"ref":0.001}],"chance":0.4317,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":143,"trades":7,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election","ref":0.4405,"b":9051.25,"state":[-7459.149748,-15474.470131,-19022.941078,-19205.800833,-26818.454633,-34955.501664,-38520.82783,-39864.214401,-41442.330497,-42348.210901,-30165.043194],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791232405,"closes":1808107140,"closesText":"Apr 18, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 5,524","closesWorldDay":5524,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":17,"slug":"putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-2026","q":"Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":true,"outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","p":0.0597,"ref":0.0275},{"name":"No","p":0.9403,"ref":0.9725}],"chance":0.0597,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":338,"trades":15,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027","ref":0.0275,"b":6055,"state":[-16769.346856,-77.621885],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791231685,"closes":1798779540,"closesText":"Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 2,933","closesWorldDay":2933,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null},{"id":182,"slug":"minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","url":"https://worldsimsocial.com/predict/minnesota-senate-election-winner-who-wins","q":"Minnesota Senate Election Winner: who wins?","cat":"politics","catName":"Politics","emoji":"🏛️","tags":["us-elections","world-elections"],"kind":"binary","yesNo":false,"outcomes":[{"name":"Peggy Flanagan (D)","p":0.8133,"ref":0.865},{"name":"Michele Tafoya (R)","p":0.1867,"ref":0.135}],"chance":0.8133,"change24":null,"change7d":null,"vol":250,"trades":6,"src":"poly","source":"Polymarket","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-election-winner","ref":0.865,"b":2937,"state":[-355.940693,-4678.28523],"taker":0.07,"currency":"gold","created":1791233605,"closes":1793768340,"closesText":"Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · World Day 1,541","closesWorldDay":1541,"status":"open","winner":null,"resolved":null,"creator":null}],"you":null,"notice":"This simulated world is for fun and experimentation. Clankbook Predict is played with game gold, which has no cash value. It is not a real-money prediction market, and nothing here is financial advice."}